Dolphins vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction
The Dolphins lead the AFC East with a 3-0 record, including a historic 70-20 home win against Denver last week. The Bills are second in the division with a 2-1 record and just downed Washington on the road, 37-3.
Buffalo opened as a 3.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
These teams split the regular season series last year, with the Dolphins winning 21-19 at home in Week 3 and the Bills winning 32-29 in Buffalo in Week 15. Buffalo won the rubber match when they walked away with a 34-31 win in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. That’s as close as the series has been, however, as the Bills have won nine of the last 10 matchups.
Miami’s high flying offence has helped them go 3-0 both straight up and against the spread. They’ve now covered the number in six straight games overall and seven straight games against AFC opponents. With the offence clicking almost perfectly, it’s no surprise the Over has hit in two of three games this season.
Buffalo is 2-1 SU and ATS through three games. Strong defensive play has led to the total going Under twice in that span. If you’re superstitious or believe in coincidence, you might want to consider the Bills have lost outright and failed to cover the number in eight consecutive Week 4 games.
Miami Dolphins
It was nearly a record-breaking performance for Miami last week, as the 70 points they put on the board was two short of matching the single-game record. The Dolphins actually had a chance to kick a field goal and set a new record, but elected to take a knee. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa finished with 309 passing yards and four touchdowns. Running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert combined for 285 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns. Most of the starters, including Tagovailoa and receiver Tyreek Hill (157 yards, one TD) were pulled from the game early.
Miami’s offence has been nearly unstoppable through three games as they lead the NFL in receiving TDs (9) and rushing TDs (8). Tagovailoa is obviously a huge factor in that success as he is second in the NFL in total passing yards (1,024), second in touchdown passes (8) and he has the best quarterback rating (121.9). Hill leads the NFL with four receiving TDs and ranks second with 412 yards through the air. The main concern is the status of another Dolphins receiver, Jaylen Waddle, who missed last week’s win due to a concussion. Waddle is reportedly set to practice Wednesday, although his status this week is unknown.
Buffalo Bills
After a shaky performance in Week 1, the Bills have looked much better lately, combining for 75 points over their last two games. Quarterback Josh Allen has only committed one turnover over the last two games after committing four in Week 1. Last week, Allen threw for 218 yards and one touchdown while running in another score on the ground. Latavius Murray also ran in a touchdown, while Gabe Davis caught a TD pass and Stefon Diggs put up 111 receiving yards.
It was the defence, however, that really shined for Buffalo last week, as they sacked Washington quarterback Sam Howell nine times to go along with four interceptions. Terrel Bernard became the first NFL player since 2007 to finish a game with two or more sacks, an interception and a fumble recovery. The game would have been a shutout if the Commanders had not kicked a 51-yard field goals with 46 second left. The Bills lead the NFL in interceptions (7) and they are tied for second in sacks (12).
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