The Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots are both coming off of wins but neither win was resounding. The Cowboys struggled more than they needed to with the Jeff Driskel-led Detroit Lions while the Patriots eked out a win over the Philadelphia Eagles in a game where their offense looked stale.

The Patriots are laying a big number here but that’s mostly because the Cowboys have struggled whenever they’ve stepped up in competition this season. Can they change the narrative and get a big win on the road?

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Cowboys are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread (ATS) against teams with a winning record this season. They’re also 5-11 ATs in that role over the last three seasons. They also don’t fare well in this series. While the teams haven’t met a lot recently, the Patriots are 5-1 in the last six get-togethers.

The Patriots thrive against NFC teams as they are 10-3 ATS and SU in their last 13 non-conference games. They’re also 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys did get the win last week – their third in their last four games – but it was again a shaky effort. Just like they did against the New York Giants a few weeks ago, they were sloppy early, fell behind and had to dig themselves out of a hole. They better sort out their slow start issues because they’re going to get blown out if they are slapdash on Sunday.

The good news for the Cowboys is that New England’s offence has looked bad over their last few games. Something might be up with Tom Brady, who had seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the team’s first three games but has just seven touchdowns and five interceptions in the team’s last seven games.

A big problem for the Pats is that they aren’t running the ball very well this season. Many people have forgotten about their offensive line injuries early on but they’ve been a big factor. The Patriots are 24^th in rushing offence and 30^th in yards per carry.

If Dallas can play smart and drag the Patriots into a low-scoring, grind-it-out type of affair, they just might have a shot here.

New England Patriots

The Patriots should win this game simply because they’ll have a huge edge on the sidelines. Jason Garrett’s Cowboys are often unprepared for these types of showdowns, making silly mistakes and boneheaded plays. Case and point was two weeks ago when the Minnesota Vikings went into Dallas and were up 14-0 by the end of the first quarter. Bill Belichick is miles ahead of Garrett and that’s significant here.

The Patriots did struggle on offence last week and against Baltimore, but those are decent defences. They were also on the road in both of those games. They’re back at home where Brady has been much better. He has a 103.9 passer rating in New England compared 81.9 on the road.

And don’t forget that the Patriots defense should control this game. This should be the best defence that Dallas has faced and the Cowboys are banged up. They just lost corner Anthony Brown for the season and while Amari Cooper, La’El Collins and DeMarcus Lawrence should all play, all will be less than 100 percent. That should make the Patriots job all the more easier.

Who Will Win Cowboys vs. Patriots?