Cowboys vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 6 Odds, Prediction

Daniel Coyle | Updated Oct 14, 2021

The New England Patriots will be aiming to win two in a row for the first time since Week 13 of last season, when they play host to the surging Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium.

October 17, 2021, 4:25 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread -4 -115
Moneyline -218
Over / Under o +50.5


Betting Action


Pointspread +4 -105
Moneyline +181
Over / Under u +50.5


Betting Action


The Patriots eked out a narrow 25-22 win over the lowly Houston Texans last week, but have yet to earn a win in three home outings to date this season. In sharp contrast to last year, the Cowboys visit New England this weekend as one of the NFL’s most reliable bets this season, going undefeated against the spread during a red-hot 4-1 start, capped by last weekend’s 44-20 rout of the New York Giants.

Dallas is a 4-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 51.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Cowboys have had little difficulty capturing the attention of sports bettors since opening as slim 1-point favourites. With 87 per cent of bets getting laid on Dallas, there has been plenty of line movement as the Cowboys have climbed to 4-point chalk. The Cowboys’ steady offensive performance has also been reflected on the total, which has rocketed to 51.5 since opening at 48.

Sunday afternoon’s Week 6 matchup marks the first meeting between these two teams since November 2019. The Patriots have dominated head-to-head, tallying six straight wins over the Cowboys, including four straight home victories in which they have limited Dallas to a meagre 7.75 points per game. However, the New England offence has been far from prolific during that stretch, averaging just 16 points per game over their past six home meetings with the Cowboys. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has consistently paid out when they these two teams clash, going 8-1 in nine contests since 1981.

Dallas Cowboys

Currently riding their first four-game win streak during a single season since 2018, the Cowboys’ early-season success begins and ends with the spectacular return of Dak Prescott. Hobbled for most of last season by a gruesome lower body injury, Prescott has been simply spectacular in his return under centre, connecting on 13 total touchdowns against just three picks, including 10 scoring passes over the past three games. Prescott’s exploits have lifted the Cowboys to second overall in points scored this season. However, it is important to note that their most dominating wins have come at home, where they have averaged over 40 points per game.

New England Patriots

In sharp contrast to the Cowboys’ fast start, the Patriots have struggled to generate consistent offence while posting wins in just two of their first five outings. Currently ranked 26th in total points scored, the Patriots’ success has been limited to road dates with lightweight opponents, including wins in Houston and against the division rival New York Jets. New England has scored fewer than 16 points per game in home losses to Miami, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. However, the Patriots defence did a solid job of containing Tom Brady in a 19-17 loss to the Buccaneers two weeks ago. Rookie passer Mac Jones has also made steady progress as the team’s starter, tossing for four scores over the past three weeks. However, none of this will be enough to keep pace with the Cowboys this weekend.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Cowboys vs. Patriots?