Commanders vs. Eagles Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks and Prediction
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Kevin Tompkins
The Eagles have won the NFC East in three of the last four seasons, while making the playoffs in eight of the last nine. It’s going to be difficult to knock them off their perch, but the Commanders are hoping for a return to their winning ways in 2024 following a lost 5-12 season last year.
These two teams split their two matchups last season, with a 29-18 victory for the Eagles at home in Week 16, and a Washington win in Week 18 by the score of 24-17.
With everybody amped up about football returning, this game should be a great one, so let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction.
Commanders vs. Eagles Kickoff, Weather, TV, Streaming Info
Kickoff is Sunday at 4:25PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The game will air on FOX with Kevin Burkhardt and Tom Brady on the call.
The weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 83-degree range at or around kickoff time in the late afternoon.
NFL Betting Odds, Point Spread, Trends
The visiting Commanders are 5.5-point road underdogs with a +180 money line on the Week 1 NFL odds board. The home Eagles are placed at a -218 moneyline as the 5.5-point favorites at home.
That said, the Eagles’ offensive attack won’t have A.J. Brown, but new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion will bring a fresh vision to the offense, but should incorporate more under-center looks. For the Eagles, who are almost a touchdown favourite in this game, it could mean the under 44.5 game total is in play for this game.
Washington’s offense is very reliant on Jayden Daniels making things happen and, while he has Terry McLaurin, he’s only had a few weeks to get a rapport established with new target Stefon Diggs. With this game a mismatch in the eyes of oddsmakers, the Eagles money line is very much in play as well for today’s game.
NFL Player Odds and Props
Stefon Diggs over 50+ receiving yards (+148)
Diggs joined the Commanders at the beginning of August, but with so many unproven receivers outside of McLaurin and free-agent Chig Okonwko at tight end, Diggs should be able to maximize his snaps in the slot and provide a shorter-area outlet for Jayden Daniels. If the Commanders are down, Daniels should have 30+ pass attempts and Diggs is bound to get at least a half-dozen targets in this game.
Rachaad White over 42.5 rush + rec yards (-115)
This is a shockingly low number for a player who should be well utilized in both the rushing and receiving game. White will work in tandem with Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the Washington backfield, but as a coveted free-agent addition this past offseason, White will get plenty of touches. With 15 or so touches of the ball, even three yards per touch will get him well over the 42.5 number.
Jalen Hurts under 209.5 passing yards (-111)
The Eagles had the ninth-fewest team pass attempts (497) last season, and in his 16 starts, Hurts averaged 18.4 completions and 28.4 pass attempts per game. Working more under center with offensive coordinator and first-time play-caller Mannion, there could be some first-game jitters and fine-tuning. Hurts passed for under 200 yards in 9-of-16 games last season, and all nine of those games came in wins. If you’re predicting the Eagles to win, take the under-passing-yards prop, as it’s very likely to hit.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders fell hard from 2024’s run to the NFC Championship game, reversing their 12-5 record that season to finish 5-12. Jayden Daniels only played seven games, and they weren’t great on either side of the ball. The Commanders were a bottom-ten team last season in offensive DVOA and a bottom-five team in defensive DVOA. Their running back room is still muddy, even with free-agent acquisition Rachaad White mixing in with incumbents Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols. But as Daniels goes, so do the Commanders. On defense, the Commanders are hoping that rookie Sonny Styles can lead this defense from the linebacker spot for the next decade-plus. This defense last season finished bottom-five in DVOA and lost 10 of their last 12 games with Marcus Mariota starting the majority of those games.
Philadelphia Eagles
Last season’s Eagles lost at home to the San Francisco 49ers in the Wild Card game, so there’s plenty of unfinished business from Philadelphia as they look to hold the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end. Jalen Hurts returns, as does a familiar cast of characters like Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and all five starters on the offensive line. This is an offense tailored to running the ball with Barkley and then making explosive plays off of chunk gains. The Eagles’ defense, with the seventh-highest DVOA in the NFL last season, brings back an embarrassment of riches for 2026. They may be the most talented defensive unit when factoring in every position on the field. Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis are enough for offensives to have to account for, but then add in Zack Baun, Jihaad Campbell, Jalyx Hunt, Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen, and Cooper DeJean, and you’re in trouble as an offense trying to score on this unit.
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