Commanders vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
The Sunday slate in Week 11 of the NFL season will kick off in Madrid, Spain, with a battle between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. It has been nothing short of a disastrous 2025 campaign for both teams. Washington comes in with a 3-7 record and is without quarterback Jayden Daniels (dislocated elbow). Miami is also 3-7, although it is coming off a huge upset of the division-rival Buffalo Bills.
The head-to-head series, which stands at 10-6 all-time in Washington’s favour, includes a split of two Super Bowl showdowns. Miami has won three of the last four meetings dating back to 2011.
The Dolphins are 2.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 47.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall and 0-4 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings. The Dolphins are 5-3 ATS in their previous eight contests. As for the Over/Under, the Over is 3-1 in Washington’s latest four games and 6-3 in Miami’s last nine. However, the Under has cashed in four of the previous five meetings between these two teams.
In addition to the more traditional lines, the first-quarter spread is -0.5 in the Dolphins’ favour and the first-half spread is -1.5. The first-quarter Over/Under is 9.5; the first-half Over/Under is 23.5.
Washington Commanders
With Daniels sidelined for the foreseeable future, Marcus Mariota will be back under centre for Washington. The Commanders are 0-3 in the former Heisman Trophy winner’s three starts this season, but he has not been the problem, at least not the main one. Mariota has accounted for seven touchdowns in 2025 (six rushing and one passing) to go along with four interceptions. The 32-year-old completed 72.7 per cent of his passes for 213 yards with two TDs and no INTs during last week’s loss to the Detroit Lions.
Head coach Dan Quinn’s outfit is significantly depleted beyond just Daniels. WR Terry McLaurin is still out, WR Treylon Burks sustained a finger injury against the Lions and will miss Sunday’s game, CB Jonathan Jones is questionable, and DT Daron Payne is suspended after taking a swing at Detroit’s WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Miami Dolphins
What’s going on in Miami?!?! It’s almost certainly too late to get anything out of this season, but the Dolphins are suddenly playing hard and have won two of their last three games. They clobbered the Atlanta Falcons 34-10 in Week 8 and then shockingly blasted Buffalo 30-13 this past weekend. Maybe head coach Mike McDaniel was not the problem after all. General manager Chris Grier got fired following a Thursday Night Football loss to the Baltimore Ravens on October 30, but McDaniel avoided the chopping block. With their head coach still at the helm, the Fins played their best game of the year against the Bills.
RB De’Von Achane went wild last weekend to the tune of 225 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. He should be in line for another big performance against a Washington defence that is giving up 134.4 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Commanders vs. Dolphins?
Both of these defences are subpar (and that’s putting it nicely in Washington’s case), so a relatively high-scoring affair should be in store for Sunday. With a defence that can’t stop anyone and an offence that is missing several key players, Washington is not in good shape. Moreover, Miami actually has some momentum right now. Let’s go with Dolphins 27, Commanders 23.
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