Colts vs. Vikings Point Spread: NFL Week 9 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput | Updated Oct 30, 2024

NFL: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

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A pair of teams in the thick of their respective division races square off on Sunday night as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Minnesota Vikings.

Indianapolis
6-7
AT
November 03, 2024, 8:20 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota
11-2
Pointspread +6.5 -110
Moneyline +240
Over / Under o +47
Matchup Odds
Pointspread -6.5 -110
Moneyline -300
Over / Under u +47
Matchup Odds

The Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings have both hit rocky waters lately, although their seasons are still very much in the balance. Indianapolis suffered a narrow 23-20 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 8, but it was the play and behaviour of QB Anthony Richardson that stole many headlines. Minnesota has been off since Thursday in Week 8, when they fell to the L.A. Rams 30-20.

Our NFL odds have the host Vikings perched as -5.5 favourites for this “flexed in” Sunday Night Football bout.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Indy and Minnesota are, judging by recent history, irregular opponents. They’ve only played each other five times in 16 years. That said, their last encounter was one for the ages. It was a December 2022 Saturday afternoon game the Colts led 33-0, only for the Vikings to battle back to win 39-36 in overtime. Matt Ryan quarterbacked the Colts that day, sadly, a QB who knows a thing or two about huge leads disintegrating.

The Colts are not an especially trustworthy side to bet on for outright wins since they’re only 4-4. Conversely, they have one of the best ATS tallies in the league at 7-1. The only game they failed to cover was back in Week 2 when they couldn’t beat a Jordan Love-less Packers ensemble. They’ve been underdogs a lot this season, but always by just a few points. In fact, this week’s +5.5 spread is the largest.

The story so far the Vikings is quite straightforward. They’re one of those teams that handles the spread when they win outright, and fails to cover when they do not. As such, the fact that they’ve dropped to 5-2 ATS is because they fell the past two weeks. Ironically, because they had been 5-0, the oddsmakers have started to favour them more…but now they’ve begun losing games. TE T.J. Hockenson is listed as questionable.

Indianapolis Colts

It says a lot that people believe the Colts are a bigger threat to their opponents when Joe Flacco gets the call rather than 2023 first round draftee Anthony Richardson.

But that’s where the team is at the midway point of the 2024 calendar. With a 4-4 record and playoff hopes hanging in the balance, they have to go with the QB that gives them a decent chance, and Flacco is that man. To be clear, Richardson isn’t injured. He has been benched. The need for a quick breather during a drive in the 23-20 loss to the Texans last week appears to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. That and a QB rating of 57.2. Richardson might still be the future in Indy, but he doesn’t look ready. Flacco has played two fewer games, yet has seven TD passes to Richardson’s four.

When WRs Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Michael Pittman Jr. have solid games, it’s when Flacco is under centre. It should make for an interesting matchup versus a Vikings defence that only concedes 19.6 points per match.

Minnesota Vikings

This Sunday Night Football game will not determine the entire season for the Vikings. However, it comes at an important juncture. Head coach Kevin O’Connell had his team humming at 5-0, but now they’re 5-2 and will have the bright prime-time lights shown on them.

The 30-20 loss to the Rams last Thursday was not a terrible performance, but some weaknesses showed. QB Sam Darnold, who was incredible early, couldn’t sustain drives down the stretch. A lot of those 240 yards and both TDs were in the first quarter. Still, the chemistry with WR Justin Jefferson is strong, as the latter went to 115 yards on eight receptions. What’s more, Jefferson is the NFL’s second-leading receiver with 646.

Minnesota’s pass rush can do plenty of damage, as both Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard have five sacks to their names. That will come in mighty handy versus the relatively immobile Flacco.

Who Will Win Colts vs. Vikings?

NFL Predictions
SportsInteraction
  • IND
  • +6.5 -6.5
  • MIN
Matchup NFL Odds