Colts vs. Steelers NFL Betting Odds, Picks: Pittsburgh Must Protect Aaron Rodgers
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Kevin Tompkins
In Week 5, we’ve got an AFC clash of 2-2 teams as the Indianapolis Colts, fresh off their 30-13 win in London over the Washington Commanders, head to Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
After dropping their first two games against AFC powers in the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, the Colts won a close division matchup against the sputtering Texans 19-17 before crossing the Atlantic to oust the Commanders.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have alternated wins and losses, beating a punchless (at the time) Falcons team 20-13, then only scoring three points at home to the Patriots before splitting division games with a win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals and then losing on a short week to the Browns in Cleveland.
These two teams played each other last season, with the Steelers winning by a touchdown at home, 27-20, after forcing four Daniel Jones turnovers in the victory.
Colts vs. Steelers Kickoff, Weather, TV, Streaming Info
Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The game will air on CBS.
The weather forecast for Week 5’s game calls for a chance of rain, but temperatures will be in the low 70s at game time.
NFL Betting Odds, Point Spread, Trends
The visiting Colts are 2.5-point road underdogs with a +120 money line on the NFL odds board. The home Steelers are placed at a -142 on the money line.
This season, Indianapolis has been reliant thus far on their ground game, with Jonathan Taylor leading the way. Last season’s first-half darling, Daniel Jones, has started the 2026 season on a poor note with more interceptions (4) than touchdown passes (3) through four games. The passing game has weapons like Josh Downs and Tyler Warren at tight end, but Jones’ struggles and a Keenan Allen injury have left them underperforming thus far.
As for the Steelers, Aaron Rodgers is clearly declining, but has been solid at times. His mobility at 42 years old has evaporated, and his accuracy is not far behind. Rodgers’ 57.5% completion percentage would be by far the lowest of his career in a full season, and he is on pace to be sacked more than he has in a single season as well, having given up 13 sacks through four contests.
With both offences not exactly firing on all cylinders, the under may be very much in play for this game, as could siding with the Steelers at home.
NFL Player Odds and Props
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor over 20.5 rush attempts
Jonathan Taylor is going to have to get a ton of volume if the Colts are going to stay in this game on the road in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a middle-of-the-road team (16th) with 112.8 rushing yards per game, and running the ball is clearly the strength of this Colts team with their solid offensive line and wanting to limit the mistakes of their quarterback.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers over 220.5 passing yards
Even with running back Jaylen Warren looking great after taking on most of the rushing workload with Rico Dowdle (toe) sidelined, Rodgers is going to have to pass the ball a bit. The Colts have allowed the fourth-most passing yards so far this season, and Rodgers’ intent is getting the ball downfield, whether it works or not.
Indianapolis Colts
Taylor has been the engine of the offence thus far through four games, and why wouldn’t he be? But even with Jones struggling at quarterback, Josh Downs has been everything the Colts have hoped for after coming out of his slot-only role to take on a full-time receiving role in this offence. Downs leads all receivers in every meaningful statistic but touchdowns, where second-year tight end Tyler Warren (2) leads the team.
It was also a rough go for their defence over the first two games as they gave up 41 and 33 points to the Ravens and Chiefs. But they’ve let up just 16 points per game in their last two,
albeit against offensively challenged teams like the Houston Texans and Washington Commanders.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Without Rico Dowdle, Jaylen Warren has been the bellcow for the Steelers and has provided a ton of relief for Rodgers thus far. Averaging 5.6 yards per carry, Warren has added three runs of 20+ yards and is also fourth on the Steelers in targets. Pittsburgh has the pieces on offence but needs Rodgers to find the fountain of youth in (purportedly) his last NFL season.
Both T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are top 10 in the NFL in sacks with 4.5 and 3.0 respectively. Both linebackers are making opposing quarterbacks cower, something easy to believe for any football fan who knows a thing or two about how the Pittsburgh Steelers operate on defence. After trading away cornerback Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas, we’ll see if that move creates a hole in their secondary or strengthens it via addition by subtraction.
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