Colts vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Oct 01, 2018

There’s some star power at quarterback in the Thursday night game that kicks off Week 5 as Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts visit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

October 04, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +10.5 -105
Moneyline +500
Over / Under o +50.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -10.5 -115
Moneyline -700
Over / Under u +50.5


Betting Action


Colts-Patriots was probably the NFL’s best rivalry for the first decade of this century because it was Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, but then Manning was done in Indy after the 2010 season.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

There may not be two organizations that dislike each other more than these two, not so much the players but the front offices/ownership. Why? The Colts were the team that “told on” the Patriots and Brady for what became known as “Deflategate” during the AFC Championship Game following the 2014 season. That, of course, eventually led to a four-game suspension for Brady and some penalties to the New England organization.

Things ratcheted up this past offseason when the Colts were set to hire Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their head coach. The team even sent out a press release about a news conference announcing the hiring the next day. One problem: Patriots owner Robert Kraft swooped in and offered McDaniels a huge raise and likely the chance to eventually replace Bill Belichick as coach. McDaniels left the Colts at the altar.

New England has won seven straight in the series. The teams last met in October 2015, a 34-27 Patriots road victory. Their last meeting in Foxboro was that “Deflategate” game. Guaranteed that Patriots fans will remember that well on Thursday.

Indianapolis Colts

Easily the most perplexing decision any head coach has made this season came in Sunday’s Colts game in Houston. For some reason, first-year Colts coach Frank Reich decided to go for it late in overtime on fourth-and-4 from Indy’s own 43. Andrew Luck’s pass to Chester Rogers was poorly thrown and incomplete. Houston already practically was in field-goal range and would win it 37-34 on Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 37-yarder. He actually missed his first try, but Reich had called timeout at the last second to ice Fairbairn.

Luck had a monster game with 464 yards passing and four scores. Adam Vinatieri kicked two field goals to become the NFL’s career leader in made kicks. The Colts could easily be 4-0 instead of 1-3, but they have folded in the closing minutes of each loss.

New England Patriots

Reports of the Patriots’ demise were greatly exaggerated as they avoided their first three-game losing streak since 2002 with a 38-7 home blowout win over previously unbeaten Miami on Sunday. Brady threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie Sony Michel blew up with 112 yards rushing and a score on 25 carries. Josh Gordon made his Patriots debut and had two catches for 32 yards.

The news wasn’t all good as star tight end Rob Gronkowski left in the third quarter with an ankle injury and didn’t return. Too early to know if Gronk will play here. On the bright side, the four-game suspension of top receiver Julian Edelman is now over.

Colts vs. Patriots Prediction