Colts vs. Jaguars Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
It’s only Week 5 in the NFL, but Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson is on the hot seat after last week’s 24-20 loss in Houston dropped the Jags to 0-4 on the season. It’s been a little better for the Colts, who improved to 2-2 with a 27-24 win against Pittsburgh last week.
The Jaguars opened as 2.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 45.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
It’s still early, so the line hasn’t moved much, with the spread sitting at Jacksonville -3 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total has inched up a tick to an even 46.0, which makes sense given the Over has hit in the last three head-to-heads between these teams.
The Jags swept the season series last year and they’ve won four of the last five overall. Jacksonville also has the edge against the spread, covering in eight of the last 10 matchups.
Indy is a solid 3-1 ATS this season, winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs last week, and they’ve split the Over/Under evenly in four games. Jacksonville, however, has been the Colts’ kryptonite in recent years. Indianapolis is just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against the Jaguars and they’ve failed to cover in eight straight trips to EverBank Stadium.
It’s been a terrible start to the year for the Jags, who are 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS while playing the Under three times. They’ll certainly be hoping the calendar flipping to a new month will turn things around as they’ve won five straight games played in October.
Indianapolis Colts
It was a tough game for quarterback Anthony Richardson last week as he was forced to leave early after suffering what looked like a hip injury. Veteran journeyman Joe Flacco took over under, going 16-of-26 for 168 passing yards and two TDs. Flacco was a great story last season, with the 39-year-old winning Comeback Player of the Year after signing with the Browns in late November and taking over as starter in Week 13. His Colts debut could be a one-off, however, as Richardson has been officially ruled QB1 this week and is expected to start.
It’s worth keeping in mind Richardson has been injury-prone in his short career, so Flacco could still see more action. That also means Indy will likely rely heavily on running back Jonathan Taylor, who finished with 88 rushing yards and a TD last week. Taylor is fifth in rushing yards this season (349) and he has the second-most rushing TDs in the league (four).
Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s been a disaster of a season for the winless Jaguars, who rank near the bottom of the league in most major offensive and defensive statistics. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled heavily as he’s topped 180 passing yards in just one game and last week was the first time he threw multiple TDs in a game. The Jaguars did find a little success running the ball against Houston, with Tank Bigsby (one of the best names in football) rushing for 90 yards on seven carries and Travis Etienne Jr. putting up 50 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards.
Believe it or not, I actually like Jacksonville in this game. The Jags, and Trevor Lawrence particularly, play Indy well. In three career home starts against the Colts, Lawrence is 3-0 with 639 combined passing yards, six TDs and a 109.8 QB rating. Jacksonville has beat the Colts by double-digits three times in six games with Lawrence starting and the team’s only two losses in those six games have come by less than a touchdown and they were both on the road. The Jags have to win at some point and this week seems as good as any.
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