Colts vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Week 12 Odds, Prediction
After losing on the road at now-9-2 Denver, the Kansas City Chiefs host 8-2 Indianapolis on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
The Chiefs, at 5-5, are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in 11 seasons. Their nine-year run as AFC West champions is also in major peril after dropping a 22-19 decision to the Broncos on a Wil Lutz field goal as time expired.
The Colts, perhaps the biggest surprise in the league, continue to ride the arm of Daniel Jones and the legs of Jonathan Taylor. They are coming off their bye week after defeating the Atlanta Falcons at home in overtime two weeks ago, 31-25.
Kansas City is a 3.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 50.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Colts are 2-2 straight up and against the spread on the road, and are 15-4 straight up and 14-5 in their last 19 games against the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 4-1 straight up and against the spread at home. The Chiefs have won 17 of their last 18 games at Arrowhead Stadium. They have played to the under in each of their past five contests overall, and four times in five games at home.
Taylor is +100 to go for over 20.5 rushing attempts, something he has done just three times this season. However, he is coming off a season-high 32 attempts against the Falcons.
Indianapolis Colts
Taylor rushed for 244 yards against Atlanta and scored three touchdowns, including an 83-yard scamper and an eight-yard winner in OT. It is the third time he has surpassed 200 yards in his career and the fifth time he has totalled triple digits on the ground this season.
Jones has been a revelation under centre, completing 69.9 per cent of his passes for 2,659 yards and 15 touchdowns. Having Taylor behind him, and rookie standout tight end Tyler Warren (50-617-3 TDs), has been a huge benefit.
However, Jones was sacked seven times, threw an interception, and fumbled three times, losing one, against Atlanta. Kansas City has the No. 7 pass defence and will look to make him uncomfortable in the pocket all afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs
Everyone’s eager to bury the dynasty, but the Chiefs are 4-1 at home, having won four straight since losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in their home opener. They have won all four by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 20.5 points. The Lions and Ravens were two of the victims on that list.
Kansas City needs to overcome its 0-5 record in one-score games a year after it went 12-0 in those same situations, including the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes looks somewhat human this season after tossing a bad interception against the Broncos last week.
But don’t be fooled. Mahomes is still fourth in the league with 2,2625 yards passing and has 18 touchdown passes. Moreover, he still has Travis Kelce to throw to. Kelce broke the team’s career touchdown record last week with his 84th as part of a nine-catch, 91-yard day.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Colts vs. Chiefs?
The Colts have the best scoring differential, +115, in the league. They have the NFL’s No. 1 offence in terms of both total yards (396.9 ypg) and points (32.1 ppg).
However, the Chiefs are nearly indestructible at home, having outscored their opponents 126-44 during their four-game win streak there.
The Colts are very good. The Chiefs are better at home. Kansas City should win and cover the 3.5-point spread as favourites 27-21.
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