Colts vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Wild Card Odds, Prediction

Sports Interaction Staff | Updated Jan 04, 2021

buffalo bills 2020

Early betting action favours the Bills in a high-scoring game. Oddsmakers have Buffalo as 7-point favourite.

AT
January 09, 2021, 1:05 PM ET
New Era Field
Buffalo
13-3
Pointspread +7 +101
Moneyline +280
Over / Under o +51

26%

Betting Action

74%

Pointspread -7 -122
Moneyline -341
Over / Under u +51

26%

Betting Action

74%

The Bills did what they have done all season and crushed Miami 56-26 on Sunday, to clinch their first AFC East title since 1995.

These teams come into Wild Card Weekend on completely different trajectories.  While Buffalo has won six straight games, Indianapolis has blown or nearly blown multiple-score leads in back-to-back weeks.  The Bills opened as 6.5-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 52.

NFL Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Early betting action favours the Bills in a high-scoring game, with 86 per cent of early bettors putting their money on Buffalo and 92 per cent taking the over.  The over might be the smart bet, as it has hit in eight of Indy’s last 12 games and 11 of Buffalo’s last 16 games.

The Colts have struggled against the spread (ATS), going 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, 2-4 ATS in their last six games against Buffalo and 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.

Since a midseason slump saw them drop back-to-back games to the Titans and Chiefs, Buffalo has been rolling and looks like a threat in the AFC, going 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Indianapolis Colts

It has to be concerning for Colts fans when they look at Indy’s last two games.  They blew a multiple-score lead to lose to Pittsburgh in Week 16 and nearly did it again in the 28-14 win over Jacksonville on Sunday.  Philip Rivers looked like his age might finally be catching up with him, throwing for 164 yards with one TD and one interception.  Rivers was bailed out by rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, who set a Colts franchise record with a monstrous 253 rushing yards and two TDs.

Taylor has been key to Indy’s run-game all season.  He finished third in league rushing with 1,169 yards and his 11 rushing TDs puts him in a tie for seventh in the NFL.  Rivers had an equally impressive first season in Indianapolis, finishing with 4,169 passing yards and 24 TDs.  The Colts defence was led by Darius Leonard, who had a team-high 132 tackles on the year, DeForest Buckner, who picked up 9.5 sacks and Kenny Moore II, who had four interceptions and one pick-six.

Buffalo Bills

With a playoff spot already clinched, the Bills could have gone the conventional route and rested some of their starters for the playoffs, but instead they opted to crush Miami by 30 points on Sunday.  After getting picked off in the first drive of the game, Josh Allen threw for 224 yards and three TDs, setting a franchise record for single season passing yards.  Allen connected with Isaiah Mackenzie for two TDs, while Mackenzie also picked up a punt return TD.  The Bills entered Sunday with the best first down passing in the NFL.  Allen completed 72.1 per cent of his first down attempts this season, averaging nine yards per attempt and Stefon Diggs caught 52 of 70 first down targets for 812 yards and five TDs.

Although Buffalo’s defence played well on Sunday and picked off Tua Tagovailoa three times in the second half, they’ve struggled with tackles, this year.  The Bills have missed 123 tackles this season, the fourth most in the NFL, and they have allowed 11 running plays of 20-plus yards, tied with the Titans for the highest total among playoff teams.  Buffalo’s offence has shown what it can do, if the defence can step up, the Bills might just be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

NFL Playoffs: Who Will Win Colts vs. Bills?

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