The Chiefs kept pace with the AFC-leading Buffalo Bills with last weekend’s 34-28 win in Denver, and also maintain a three-game lead over Los Angeles atop the division standings with just four games remaining on the schedule. The Texans return home licking their wounds after dropping a heartbreaking 27-23 decision in Dallas last week that extends their current straight up losing streak to eight games, and leaves them buried in last place in the NFL standings with a 1-11-1 record.

The Chiefs have remained steady since opening as 14-point favourites on the NFL odds, and enjoy the backing of 75 per cent of sports bettors despite covering the spread in just three of their past nine contests. The total has climbed substantially since opening at 46.5, rising to 49.5, with the OVER attracting 56 per cent of the betting action.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Sunday afternoon’s matchup at NRG Stadium marks the first meeting between these teams since September 2020. The Chiefs have claimed victory in six of eight head-to-head clashes, including decisive wins in three of four visits to Houston. KC has also covered in five of its past seven dates with the Texans, and have seen their past two wins come by a combined margin of 34 points.

However, Kansas City has struggled to reward loyal sports bettors this season, going 5-8 against the spread and failing to cover in their past two road contests. The Texans have also been a disappointment at the sportsbooks, covering just twice during their current 0-8 swoon while falling to defeat by double-digit margins on five occasions.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will be looking to avoid a repeat of last week’s date with the Broncos, in which they stormed out to an early 27-0 lead before needing an insurance score in the third quarter to hold off a Broncos rally and seal the 34-28 win. Indeed, the Chiefs have regularly made things hard on themselves with their failure to finish opponents. The squad blew a fourth-quarter lead while surrendering a pair of late scores in their 27-24 loss to Cincinnati two weeks ago, and were forced to rally in the dying seconds to preserve as 30-27 win over the Chargers in Week 11.

The Chiefs’ woes are highlighted by their recent lack of production in the fourth quarter, with the team getting outscored by an overall 24-6 margin the final frame over their past three games. Patrick Mahomes has emerged as a target of criticism for his recent play. The Chiefs quarterback threw for three touchdowns in last weekend’s win, but also tossed three interceptions, two of which the Broncos converted into major scores of their own. Overall, Mahomes has connected on just five scoring passes against four picks over the past three games, and has twice completed fewer than 60 per cent of pass attempts over that stretch.

Houston Texans

The heartache continued for long-suffering Texans fans in last week’s loss in Dallas. Poised to put the game away late in the fourth quarter after intercepting a Dak Prescott pass deep inside Cowboys territory, the Texans failed on four attempts to score from inside the Dallas 5-yard line. That provided the Cowboys with an opportunity to win the game, which they readily seized, with Prescott marching the offence 98 yards to the Houston end zone in just 2:39. The Texans now return home riding an eight-game slide, and are faced with the daunting task of snapping an epic swoon on home turf, where they have tallied just one win in 14 games since the opening weekend of the 2021 season.

Already struggling to generate offence while scoring just 17.1 points per game during their current home slide, injuries have emerged as a huge problem for Houston. Among the players who did not participate in Wednesday practice due to injury are receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, rusher Dameon Pierce, and offensive linemen Laremy Tunsil and Kenyon Green. That not only raises questions as to who will generate points for this team on Sunday, but also who will protect the quarterback tandem of Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Texans?