Chiefs vs. Steelers Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Dec 27, 2024

NFL: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Big playoff implications are on the line on Christmas Day as the Kansas City Chiefs look to lock down the top seed in the AFC, while the Pittsburgh Steelers look to stay atop the AFC North standings.

AT
December 25, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh
10-7
Pointspread -2 -110
Moneyline -130
Over / Under o +43
Pointspread +2 -110
Moneyline +110
Over / Under u +43

Pittsburgh came up short in a massive divisional game last week, dropping a 34-17 decision against Baltimore. That allowed the Ravens to draw even with the Steelers for the AFC North lead, which means Pittsburgh likely has to win their final two regular season games to have a chance to win the division as Baltimore holds the tiebreaker.

Kanas City is playing for even higher stakes. The Chiefs improved to 14-1 with a 27-19 win against Houston last week and a win in Week 17 clinches the top seed in the AFC. That would obviously be huge for Kansas City as it gives the banged up team extra rest ahead of their run for a third straight Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are three-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 43.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Kansas City has won three straight head-to-heads overall, but they’ve actually dropped six of their last seven games played in Pittsburgh. The teams last met in the wild-card round of the 2021 season, with the Chiefs winning 42-21 at Arrowhead Stadium before eventually losing to Cincinnati in the AFC championship game.

The Steelers have been one of the best cover options in the NFL this season at 10-5 against the spread, including 5-1 ATS at home. Kansas City has been disappointing at 7-8 ATS while failing to cover in seven of their last nine games.

Both teams have split the Over/Under fairly evenly. Pittsburgh, however, has trended toward higher scoring games lately, with the Over hitting in seven of their last 10.

Kansas City Chiefs

After fears Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t even play last week because of an ankle injury, the two-time league MVP came up big with 260 passing yards and a TD while adding 33 rushing yards and another score on the ground. The receiving core of Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown all looked comfortable, chipping in a combined 177 yards in the air. It was Brown’s first game this season after recovering from a shoulder injury. Kareem Hunt also rushed for 55 yards and a TD.

The concern for Kansas City this week is the pressure Mahomes will face. Mahomes played well last week, but he’s still dealing with an ankle injury and the Chiefs allowed him to be pressured on 22 dropbacks against Houston. Pittsburgh has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and they’ll be a much tougher matchup than the Texans.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson threw for 217 yards and two TDs against Baltimore, but he also threw a pick-six and had a horrendous fumble at the end of the game that proved costly. The Steelers went from having a chance to clinch the AFC North to giving up sole possession of the division lead and officially losing the tiebreaker against the Ravens. Receiver George Pickens missed his third straight game with a hamstring injury, but he is expected to return against Kansas City.

The difference for Pittsburgh this week, however, will be T.J. Watt. The All-Pro linebacker played last week after fears he’d miss the game because of an ankle injury. Watt, who is fourth in the NFL with 11.5 sacks and the current favourite to win Defensive Player of the Year, should be able to break through the Chiefs’ banged up offensive line and keep Mahomes running.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Steelers?

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