Chiefs vs. Ravens Point Spread: AFC Conference Championships Odds, Prediction
Two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs visit soon-to-be two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday with the Ravens as 3-point favourites on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
It’s the No. 3 seed visiting the No. 1 seed in the AFC title game just like it is in the NFC championship, which follows this matchup. We do have lookahead lines for Super Bowl 58: Ravens -3.5 vs. Lions; Chiefs -3 vs. Lions; 49ers -1.5 vs. Ravens; 49ers -2.5 vs. Chiefs.
Of course, Patrick Mahomes has already won two Super Bowls with Kansas City, which is looking to become the first team to repeat since New England following the 2004 season. It’s the second chance for Mahomes to attempt a repeat, but his team lost in Super Bowl LV in Tampa to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers following the 2020 season. Baltimore hasn’t been to the Super Bowl since after the 2012 campaign, well before Lamar Jackson reached the NFL. Jackson will tie Mahomes with two regular-season MVP Awards when that is announced the weekend of Super Bowl 58.
The Chiefs are 7-5 all-time vs. the Ravens and the lone playoff meeting was on Jan. 9, 2011, when Baltimore won 30-7 at home in the Wild Card round. The last regular-season matchup was early in the 2021 season and the Ravens won 36-35 at home behind a passing TD and 107 yards and two rushing scores from Jackson, who improved 1-3 career vs. Kansas City. Mahomes threw for 343 yards and three scores.
Kansas City Chiefs
We had the right score for Kansas City’s Divisional Round game in Buffalo but the wrong winner as the Chiefs pulled off the minor upset, 27-24, to improve to 3-0 vs. Buffalo in the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen postseason rivalry. That was the first true road playoff game in Mahomes’ career. He threw for 215 yards and two scores to Travis Kelce – yes, Taylor Swift was in attendance – to improve to 13-3 in his playoff career. Running back Isiah Pacheco gave the Chiefs the 27-24 lead with a four-yard TD run early in the fourth, and it stood up after Buffalo’s Tyler Bass missed a tying 44-yarder wide right with 1:47 to go. Buffalo had first-and-10 on the Kansas City 27 but went nowhere to set up the field goal try.
The Kansas City defence generally has carried the load and still hasn’t given up 28 points in a game this season, the fifth team in NFL history to do so in 19 games including playoffs. No team has ever done it in 20 games in a season. Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney injured his pectoral muscle and is in question for the AFC title game – but the good news is that was strained and not torn so even if he can’t play Sunday, he should be OK for the Super Bowl if the Chiefs get there. Mahomes wasn’t sacked in Buffalo thanks to Thuney and those guys up front.
Baltimore Ravens
Are you aware that the Ravens have now led in the final two minutes of every game they have cared about this season? Throw out Week 18 when they rested starters vs. Pittsburgh. Baltimore looked a bit rusty playing its first meaningful football in weeks Saturday but woke up in the second half and beat Houston 34-10 to earn the opportunity to host their first-ever AFC title game (as Ravens). Lamar Jackson had been 0-2 in home playoff games in his career but was brilliant vs. the Texans with two TD passes and two rushing TDs along with 100 yards rushing.
The Ravens in the regular season were the first team in NFL history to lead or co-lead the NFL in scoring defense, sacks and takeaways and while they didn’t have a sack of CJ Stroud or a takeaway held the Texans to just 213 yards and zero offensive TDs. Ravens Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews and cornerback Marlon Humphrey missed the game but good chance both return Sunday. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh was a former assistant in Philadelphia when Chiefs coach Andy Reid was running the show there years ago, and Reid is 5-0 in the playoffs vs. former assistant coaches.
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