NFL Super Bowl Best Bets: Chiefs vs Eagles Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput | Updated Feb 07, 2023

NFL: Super Bowl LVII-Stadium and Field Preparation Press Conference

Hello, dear readers! Welcome to the final edition of NFL Best Bets for the current season. With only two teams to focus on, it also allows us to get deep into the weeds of what makes the Eagles and Chiefs tick.

February 12, 2023, 6:30 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
Pointspread +1.5 -110
Moneyline +102
Over / Under o +51.5
Pointspread -1.5 -110
Moneyline -123
Over / Under u +51.5

So what statistical trends might influence how some of the props develop on Super Bowl night? Read on to find out.

As usual, don’t forget to visit our Super Bowl odds page, player props page, and the Super Bowl party PDF.

Kansas City Chiefs v Philadelphia Eagles

  • Kansas City Chiefs -110 +1
  • Philadelphia Eagles -110 -1

Rushing Towards the End Zone

There are many rushing touchdown props trying to seduce betters this week. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had the fifth most potent ground game in the regular season, both with respect to total yards and per contest. Philly also scored the most touchdowns while carrying the rock, netting 32 scores, a cool eight more than second-place Dallas. In the playoffs, they added seven more tallies in that fashion as they stomped on both the Giants and the 49ers.

Consider that of the 32 regular season scores, half were the result of chasing in the red zone. Make no mistake about it, as much as Jalen Hurts improved his passing game, these Eagles are better with claws pounding the soil.

The same can’t be said about the Chiefs. Kansas City earned 18 TDs in the regular season with their legs and none in the playoffs. One should never overlook Andy Reid’s knack for cooking up something special in the red zone, however.

Over 4.5 feels like discredits Philadelphia’s pass game. Under 4.5 feels like a sweet spot. Would anyone be surprised if the Eagles punch it in from a short distance three times and KC at least once?

Super Bowl 57 - Match Totals

Over/Under - Total Rushing Touchdowns
  • Over -230 +1
  • Under +160 +1

I Too Like to Live Dangerously

Analyzing a single game in all its facets allows us to get into some more funky statistics and probabilities. Perusing the Super Bowl team props page, something quirky caught our eye. Fourth down conversions. We only just talked about how the Eagles burn opponents with their legs. Another soul-crushing way by which a ground attack is effective is when reaching for that glorious first down marker on a fourth-and-one or a fourth-and-inches.

Lo and behold, Philadelphia attempted the fourth-most fourth-down plays in the NFL during the regular season. Their success ratio was a terrific 68. 8 per cent, also good for fourth place. They also perfectly executed three out of three in their two playoff games thus far. KC may have the better success rate, but they only felt the need to live dangerously 12 times this season.

The “yes” for a fourth-down conversion performed by the Eagles is mighty tempting.

Super Bowl 57 - Offense

Will There Be A 4th Down Conversion - By Philadelphia Eagles
  • Yes -305
  • No +200

Be Special to the Great

The conversation about great teams can’t be limited to offence and defence, can it? Let’s not pretend Adam Vinatieri didn’t lend a helping foot in some of those early Patriots Super Bowl victories.

But what of the kickers in this particular game? This doesn’t feel like a situation in which Philadelphia will need to rely so much on its placekicker, Jake Elliot. At least not judging from what was discussed in the previous section and the team’s propensity to throw caution to the wind and go for broke on fourth down.

On the flip side, the Chief’s Harrison Butker is an intriguing prop. He only went 75 per cent during the regular season, yet ironically kicked the longest field goal of the year, a 62-yarder. In his two postseason contests, Butker is a perfect 5/5. What’s more, all of his kicks were critical for victory as KC’s entire margin of victory through two games totals only 10 points.

The Over 7.5 points for Harrison Butker looks like a promising bet.

Super Bowl LVII - Kickers

Total Points Kicking - Harrison Butker
  • Over -140 +7
  • Under +100 +7

A.J. for a TD

One of the great offseason acquisitions last year was A.J. Brown, who was a stud in Tennessee. After packing his bags for Philadelphia, new surroundings and new colours did not deter him from picking up where he had left off. He was superb in the regular season, tallying 1,496 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 88.0 yards per contest. All those numbers put him comfortably in the top five among receivers.

It’s been a vastly different story in the playoffs. Through two games Brown only has 50 total yards and no touchdowns. Read between the lines and one understands that the running game took care of business against New York and especially San Francisco. The star wideout’s services simply weren’t needed. The Eagles are facing their toughest test yet and all hands will be required on deck. Kansas City, for all its virtues, has a middle-of-the-pack pass defence.

It feels like the table is set for A.J. Brown to explode and be the receiver with the most receptions.

Super Bowl LVII - Offensive Players

Most Receptions
  • Travis Kelce -115
  • DeVonta Smith +340
  • AJ Brown +365
  • Dallas Goedert +520
  • Jerick McKinnon +1200
  • Juju Smith-Schuster +1200
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling +1200
  • Kadarius Toney +1900
  • Isiah Pacheco +2000
  • Skyy Moore +2100
  • Kenneth Gainwell +2600
  • Justin Watson +4200
  • Any Other Player +4200
  • Marcus Kemp +5200
  • Quez Watkins +5200
  • Miles Sanders +8300
  • Jody Fortson +8300
  • Zach Pascal +8300
  • Noah Gray +8300
  • Boston Scott +10600
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