The NFL season comes to a close on Sunday with Super Bowl 57 from Glendale, Arizona, as the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs face the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. Who will win MVP? To no surprise, the quarterbacks are favoured.

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Regular-Season Trend Favours Hurts

The NFL Honors show is Thursday night from Phoenix, and it’s expected that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be named regular-season MVP for the second time in his already Hall of Fame career and Philadelphia Eagles counterpart Jalen Hurts will finish second. They will make history in Super Bowl 57 as the first opposing Black quarterbacks to start the big game.

There have been three previous Super Bowl QB matchups between the MVP winner and runner-up from that season. Interestingly, the runner-up won each game: New England’s Tom Brady over Atlanta’s Matt Ryan following the 2016 season, New Orleans’ Drew Brees over Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning following the 2009 season, and San Francisco’s Joe Montana over Cincinnati’s Ken Anderson following the 1981 campaign.

Just like quarterbacks usually win the regular-season MVP Award, they usually do the same in the Super Bowl with 31 all-time MVPs. No other position is close to double digits. The positions without a Super Bowl MVP: tight end, offensive lineman and kicker/punter.

Possible Voter Fatigue For QB?

Because Super Bowl 57 is almost a pick’em, it’s not a huge shock that Mahomes and Hurts are both +125 to win MVP and then there’s a huge drop-off to Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce, himself a future Hall of Famer, at +1100. Mahomes led the NFL in passing TDs during the regular season with 41, and Hurts led all QBs in rushing scores with 13 – he has since added two more in the playoffs to set the single-season record for a QB with 15 rushing scores. Hurts is nowhere near the passer Mahomes is, and Hurts hasn’t been asked to pass much in the postseason as Philadelphia has run the ball well and blew out both opponents.

Mahomes did win MVP of the Super Bowl three years ago in a 31-20 comeback win over San Francisco, completing 26-for-42 for 286 yards, two TDs and two picks. He also rushed for a score. If any of Mahomes’ or Hurts’ receivers have big games, that means the QB did too. Thus, it’s hard not to pick one of them. Still, we will go with Eagles wideout AJ Brown at +1500 off his career-best season as we think Philadelphia wins the game. The Chiefs figure to load up and stop the run, so Brown could have a few deep passes thrown his way. Perhaps there will be voter fatigue for a QB winning the award again. A receiver did win it last year in the Rams’ Cooper Kupp.

Super Bowl 57 MVP Prediction

Eagles’ AJ Brown at +1500