Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert renew their terrific rivalry in the Sunday night game in Week 11 as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favourites on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This game was flexed into the Sunday night window, replacing Bengals-Steelers.

In my opinion, Chiefs-Chargers has the best individual quarterback rivalry in the league right now in Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, who likely will win his second MVP award this season, and LA’s Justin Herbert, who seems destined to win one someday.

Usually close games between the two and in Week 2 – the first Thursday night game on Amazon Prime – the Chiefs rallied for a 27-24 victory. Herbert made a terrible decision with a little more than 10 minutes remaining and the game tied 17-all as he was picked off at the Kansas City one-yard line, and it was returned 99 yards for a touchdown by rookie Jaylen Watson, his first career pick. Herbert, who also was clearly injured late in the game after a big hit, threw for 334 yards and three scores. Mahomes threw for 235 and two scores.

The Chargers are 4-1-1 against the spread in the past six meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes has established himself as the clear favourite to win a second NFL MVP award as he had a fourth straight 300-yard passing game on Sunday in a 27-17 win over Jacksonville, the Chiefs’ third straight win. He threw for 331 yards and four scores. Mahomes now owns the all-time record for passing touchdowns (176) through 75 career games. He did so in only his 72nd outing. It was his 12th career game with at least 300 passing yards and four passing TDs. Mahomes has the most such games in the NFL since 2018, and four more than second place.

Kadarius Toney, acquired from the Giants around the trade deadline, had his first TD catch with his new team. Fellow wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster may have suffered a concussion and thus is in doubt this week. The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven vs. the AFC.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were 22-16 losers at San Francisco on Sunday. They were shut out in the second half. Justin Herbert went 21 for 35 for 196 yards with a touchdown pass for the Chargers, who were playing without both starting tackles and receivers – although coach Brandon Staley said receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams would practice this week so perhaps one or both can return. Herbert left briefly to be checked for a concussion but did return. Defensive tackles Christian Covington and Otito Ogbonnia suffered season-ending injuries in the loss. Los Angeles is 3-10 ATS in its past 13 November games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Chargers?