Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: Super Bowl 55 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Feb 06, 2021

bucs vs chiefs

The Buccaneers will become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium as Tom Brady & Co. welcome Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55.

AT
February 07, 2021, 6:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay
11-5
Pointspread -3 -105
Moneyline -150
Over / Under o +56.5

66%

Betting Action

34%

Pointspread +3 -115
Moneyline +127
Over / Under u +56.5

66%

Betting Action

34%

The Chiefs are 3-point favourites on the NFL odds with an over/under total of 56.5, which is among the highest in Super Bowl history. On the moneyline, Kansas City is -169 and Tampa Bay +141.

Super Bowl LV Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s the 10th Super Bowl trip for the incomparable Brady, who already has a record six Super Bowl rings. Of course, this is his first trip from the NFC, and it’s only the second time his team (New England Patriots previously) is a Super Bowl betting underdog.

Brady’s last title came following the 2018 season against the Los Angeles Rams with an ugly 13-3 win in SB 53 in Atlanta. That was the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. Mahomes and the Chiefs rallied to win Super Bowl 54 last February 31-20 over the San Francisco 49ers in Miami. This will then be the first-ever Super Bowl between the last two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. It’s also the seventh Super Bowl overall between QBs who had previously won one.

In Week 12, Kansas City visited Tampa as a 3.5-point favourite and won 27-24 in a game that really wasn’t that close – the Chiefs led 27-10 entering the fourth. Mahomes threw for 462 yards and three touchdowns. Tyreek Hill caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Brady threw for 345 yards and three scores but was intercepted twice.

Kansas City is on a seven-game winning streak vs. the NFC. The road team is 1-5 ATS in the past six between the Chiefs and Bucs.

Kansas City Chiefs

While the Chiefs keep winning in Mahomes starts (they lost Week 17 when he and other key guys were given the meaningless game off), they have covered the spread in just two of their past 10 games. They did in the AFC title game, though, in a 38-24 win over the visiting Buffalo Bills – who jumped out to a 9-0 lead. Mahomes seems to thrive playing from behind as he’s now 4-1 in his career when trailing by two or more scores in a playoff game. The only QB with more such wins is Brady with six. Mahomes threw for 325 yards and three scores vs. Buffalo. Hill caught nine for 172, and Travis Kelce continued the best season ever for a tight end with 13 catches for 118 yards and two scores.

The news was not all good as former Pro Bowl left tackle Eric Fisher, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft, tore his Achilles vs. Buffalo and will not play in the Super Bowl. Chiefs coach Andy Reid also said he’s “not optimistic” that starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) will be available for the game. The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their past nine as favourites.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs became a rare team to win three road playoff games to reach a Super Bowl. They were 3.5-point underdogs in the NFC Championship Game in Green Bay but upset the Packers 31-26 to give Brady as many NFC titles (one) as fellow legendary QBs Aaron Rodgers (Packers) and Drew Brees (Saints). Brady actually wasn’t all that sharp vs. the Packers with three picks but did have three TD throws.

Green Bay made a baffling decision to kick a field goal with just over two minutes left and fourth-and-goal at the Tampa 8. What’s the point of getting within five points that late? The Packers would still need a TD to win. They never got the ball back offensively, and Rodgers was clearly ticked off after to the point he hinted his time in Green Bay might be up. Tampa played without two key players in stellar rookie safety Antoine Winfield and former All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown. Expect both to go in Super Bowl 55 with the extra week off. The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in their past four as underdogs.

Super Bowl Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Buccaneers?

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