The Chiefs played another close game last week, improving to 12-1 with a 19-17 win over the Chargers. Despite the stellar record, there are some serious questions about why Kansas City is barely beating opponents they should be blowing out.

The Browns, on the other hand, are just riding out the season. Last week’s 27-14 loss in Pittsburgh dropped Cleveland to 3-10 on the season and they have officially been eliminated from the postseason for the third time in the last four years.

The Chiefs are four-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 43.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s been all Kansas City in head-to-head action, with the Chiefs riding a five-game win streak over the Browns. Cleveland, however, has paid bettors with a 7-3 record against the spread in their last 10 against KC.

Neither team has been a great option for bettors this season. The Chiefs are 5-8 ATS and have failed to cover in seven straight games, while the Browns are 4-9 ATS while failing to cover in four of their last five.

These teams have very different straight up records. Dating to last season, KC is 18-1 in their last 19 games, including 9-1 in their last 10 on the road. Cleveland has lost nine of their last 11 games overall and they are 0-6 in their last six against AFC West opponents.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City clinched a ninth-straight AFC West crown with last week’s win, but it came down to the dying seconds with their third-string kicker doinking a 31-yard field goal to seal the deal. The Chiefs have now had three different kickers make a game-winning field goal as time expired this season. No other team in NFL history has had more than one kicker do so in a single season.

KC thrives in close games. The Chiefs are 10-0 in one-score games this season and they’ve won 15 straight one-score games dating to last year. I think that changes this week and Kansas City flexes their muscles ahead of the playoffs. The Chiefs offence has the tools to overwhelm Cleveland and I’ve got receiver DeAndre Hopkins circled for a big game. Hopkins’ chemistry with Patrick Mahomes continues to improve with two TDs in his last three games. He’s also been targeted 18 times over the last two weeks.

Cleveland Browns

It was another tough week for Jameis Winston in Pittsburgh. Winston threw for 212 yards, two TDs and two interceptions as the Browns hit double-digit losses in a season for the 18th time since returning to Cleveland in 1999. Winston has been wildly inconsistent. He has thrown five interceptions over his last two games, but he also finished with 497 passing yards two weeks ago in Denver.

Last week was even worse for receiver Kadarius Toney, who Cleveland cut after he took a taunting penalty before botching a late kick return in Pittsburgh. There was hope that Cedric Tillman (concussion) could return, but he’s been ruled out against Kansas City. That means Jerry Jeudy will once again see the bulk of targets. Jeudy is two weeks removed from recording 235 receiving yards against Denver and he’s been targeted a minimum of six times in seven straight games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Browns?