Chiefs vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds, Prediction
The game is this Sunday from Buffalo with the Bills opening as 2.5-point favourites on the NFL odds.
NFL Divisional Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The AFC is down to its Final Four with one half of the bracket featuring the second-seeded AFC East champion Bills hosting the No. 3 AFC West champion Chiefs. The winner Sunday would visit top-seeded Baltimore in the AFC title game if the Ravens beat visiting Houston as expected on Saturday. If the Texans are upset winners, the winner here hosts the AFC title game.
This will be a first for Chiefs quarterback and two-time MVP and Super Bowl winner Patrick Mahomes: A true road playoff game. The only postseason games he has played outside of Kansas City were neutral-site Super Bowls. Mahomes is 2-0 against Josh Allen and the Bills in the playoffs, winning both in Kansas City: 42-36 in overtime in the Divisional Round following the 2021 season and 38-24 in the AFC title game following the 2020 season.
They played Week 14 this season in Kansas City and Buffalo won 20-17 coming out of its bye week to start a late-season surge from a 6-6 start. If Buffalo loses that, it might not even be in the playoffs. Tyler Bass had the winning 39-yard field goal with 1:54 to go. A wild TD by the Chiefs after that on a Travis Kelce to Kadarius Toney lateral was waived off by penalty (offside on Toney), and Kansas City would be
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes had to play on Wild Card Weekend for only the second time in his already Hall of Fame career and led a 26-7 home win over Miami on Saturday night in brutally cold conditions. The warm-weather Dolphins looked very much out of their element with just 264 yards and 13 first downs. Miami entered with the No. 1 total offence (401.3 ypg) and the No. 2 scoring offence in the NFL (29.2 ppg). Mahomes threw for 262 yards and a TD to excellent rookie wideout Rashee Rice, who caught eight passes for 130 yards. It was the most receiving yards in a playoff game by a rookie in team history. Isiah Pacheco rushed for 89 yards and a TD. This offence simply isn’t close to as high-powered as it has been in the past under Mahomes, though, with a very poor group of pass-catchers other than Rice and tight end Travis Kelce (seven catches for 71 yards), so the Chiefs probably aren’t going to win many shootouts.
Kansas City scored touchdowns on just two of six red zone drives on Saturday, and settling for field goals has been an issue as KC finished 17th in red zone efficiency in the regular season at 54.1 per cent. The Chiefs’ 12 playoff victories since 2018 lead the NFL by a mile and Mahomes already has the eighth-most postseason victories by a quarterback in history. Mahomes has been an underdog 10 times in his NFL career, going 7-3 outright and 8-1-1 ATS.
Buffalo Bills
Because Buffalo’s Wild Card game this past Sunday vs. Pittsburgh had to be postponed until Monday due to a winter storm, that puts the Bills had a disadvantage on a short week entering the Divisional Round. Buffalo didn’t have too much trouble Monday in a 31-17 victory, the team’s sixth straight win. If QB Josh Allen can avoid turnovers, this team absolutely can win its first Super Bowl and Allen didn’t give the ball away against Pittsburgh while throwing for three scores and running for a spectacular 52-yard touchdown.
No. 2 wideout Gabe Davis missed the game with a knee injury but might return for the Divisional Round. However, starting linebacker Terrel Bernard injured his ankle in the win and is probably doubtful at best this week. Bernard’s second season in the NFL included three interceptions, five passes defensed, three fumble recoveries, 6.5 sacks and 143 tackles. He had a fumble recovery, two passes defensed and four tackles before leaving vs. Pittsburgh. Fellow linebacker Baylon Spector (back) also departed with an injury Monday. Cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Christian Benford also left Monday with injuries, and another cornerback, Rasul Douglas, sat due to a knee injury. The weather as of now looks relatively decent Sunday in Buffalo, although obviously cold.
KC
BUF