Both teams were involved in iconic games last season, so this is a highly anticipated matchup.

In a testament to how tough this one is to call, odds makers place Andy Reid’s Chiefs as slight -2 favourites. The over-under is 52.5 points scored.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

All anybody can think of is the two most recent tilts between these AFC forces. On Jan 2nd, with the Bengals on the cups of winning their division, the squads slugged it out in a bewildering shootout that ended 34-31. The Chiefs were flying with a 28-14 lead, but they could not stop QB Joe Burrow or WR Ja’Marr Chase.

When the teams met again weeks later in the AFC Championship game at Arrowhead, most believed the home side would exact revenge. It looked like it for two quarters, with Kansas City leading 21-10 at the half. Then, Cincinnati slowly chipped away at the deficit and nullified the hosts’ offence, eventually winning 27-24 on an OT field goal.

The Chiefs are a disappointing 5-6 ATS in 2022. Spreads against the Chargers were not covered twice but the team won. A spread against the Raiders wasn’t covered, yet still they won. An outrageous -14 spread at home to the Titans also didn’t work out but the team claimed victory in OT. Proceed with caution.

Conversely, the Bengals have a brilliant 8-3 showing against the spread. After a slow start to the campaign, Zac Taylor has righted the ship. Failures to cover in Weeks 1 and 2 have been followed by an 8-1 record. The only blemish was a Monday Night mystery when the Browns battered them 32-13.

Kansas City Chiefs

December is all about playoff positioning. The number 1 seed is what Andy Reid’s troupe is after. They own it for now, with Buffalo and Miami breathing down their neck at 8-3.

Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in yards passing and TDs. He’s 4th in yards per pass as well. A warning sign is the risks in the red zone, many of which have led to his 8 INTs for the year. Even so, the team is looking like a well-oiled machine through the air despite the departure of WR Tyreek Hill. Week 12 at home to the Rams evolved exactly as most expected. Kansas City’s defence handled a backup QB with no experience and its offence marching down the field, eating up the clock and doing just enough for a comfortable 26-10 victory.

WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are listed as Questionable at the time of writing.

Cincinnati Bengals

Although the Bengals trail the Chiefs in most of the major offensive categories, it’s rarely by more than a few spots. Except for the ground game, Cincinnati runs a top 5 NFL offence.

Last week against the Titans Zac Taylor’s men showed grit. Without Ja’Marr Chase or RB Joe Mixon, it was an opportunity for WR Tee Higgins and RB Samaje Perine to step up. Perine was decent if unspectacular save for a couple of strong runs. Higgins, however, reminded the league why he’s got the skills to burn any defence. Seven grabs for 144 yards a critical TD was the difference on the day in a 23-16 win. Not to be overlooked, the defence limited Derrick’s Henry damage to 38 yards on 17 carries.

Chase and Mixon are listed as Questionable at the time of writing.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Bengals?