Chargers vs. Steelers Point Spread: NFL Week 3 Odds, Prediction
Despite Pittsburgh and L.A. entering Week 3 with perfect records, there’s still plenty of questions surrounding both teams. The Steelers’ defence has carried the team as they needed less than 20 points to beat both Atlanta (18-10) and Carolina (13-6). The Chargers have wins against Las Vegas (22-10) and Carolina (26-3), but getting past Pittsburgh’s defence is a whole other level.
Pittsburgh opened as a three-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 38.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
There’s been fairly significant line movement in this game, particularly with the total which has been bet down to 35.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s the lowest Week 3 total. Money coming in on the Chargers has also shrunk the spread to Pitt -1.5. It wouldn’t be shocking to see this game as a pick’em by kickoff.
These teams have alternated wins in head-to-head action over the last decade. They last met in Week 11 of the 2021 season, with L.A. coming out on top 41-37 at home. The Over/Under has also split evenly in that stretch.
In both games this season, the Chargers have won, covered and the total has gone Under. That continues a trend that has seen the total go Under in 14 of their last 17 games, including seven of their last eight on the road. It’s also worth noting, L.A. is just 1-5 straight up in their last six games against AFC opponents.
Pittsburgh has played their first two games on the road, going 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS with two Unders. They are 5-1 both SU and ATS in their last six games. It’s no surprise that low scoring games have been key for the Steelers, with the total going Under in 12 of their last 18 contests.
Los Angeles Chargers
Head coach Jim Harbaugh is already making major adjustments to the way the Chargers offence runs. Quarterback Justin Herbert averaged more than 40 pass attempts per game in his first four NFL seasons, but has just 46 total pass attempts in his first two games under Harbaugh. Herbert finished 14-of-20 for 130 passing yards with two TDs (both to Quentin Johnston) and one interception last week. Keep an eye on the status of Herbert, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Harbaugh hasn’t committed to starting Herbert, so this game looks a lot different if Easton Stick is under centre.
Running back J.K. Dobbins has dominated over the first two games of the year, rushing for a league-high 266 yards. Signing Dobbins to a one-year contract was a low risk, high reward move for the Chargers. Dobbins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 1 last year, but he’s been a massive piece of L.A.’s offensive attack through two games. Still, I think Dobbins takes a step back in Week 3. Pittsburgh is allowing an average of just 76.5 rushing yards per game and I think the Chargers will struggle heavily to find holes in the Steelers’ defence. I’m taking the Under on Dobbins’ rushing yards this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback Justin Fields is 2-0 as Pittsburgh’s starter, but he didn’t put up great numbers against Atlanta (17/23, 156 yards) or Denver (13/20, 117 yards, TD). Those are concerning numbers, considering the Chargers allow a league-low average of just 6.5 points per game and they are sixth in passing yards allowed per game (147.0). There’s been no change in the status of Russell Wilson, who is dealing with a calf injury, so the Steelers are expected to stick with Fields in Week 3.
Defence has always been the bread and butter of Pittsburgh and head coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers suffocating D ranks within the top five in the NFL in average total yards allowed (260.5), rushing yards allowed (76.5) and points allowed (8.0) per game. The one anomaly is their pass defence, which is 14th in the league (184.0 passing yards allowed per game).
LAC
PIT