Chargers vs. Patriots Predictions: NFL Playoffs Wild Card Player Props
It’s put-up-or-shut-up time as the New England Patriots, making their first postseason appearance in four years, host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET.
With new coach Mike Vrabel at the helm, the Pats won 14 games and their first AFC East crown since 2019. Critics point to one of the softest schedules on record, but the fact remains New England has won 13 of 14 coming into Sunday night’s contest, including five of six at Gillette Stadium.
They’ll host the 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers, who are looking to avoid losing on the road on Wild Card Weekend for the third time in the past four seasons. Quarterback Justin Herbert fractured his left hand in Week 13, but after sitting out last week’s regular-season finale, he is proclaiming himself fit and ready to go.
You can also check out our full game preview and score prediction here.
Chargers vs. Patriots NFL Player Prop Odds and Betting Trends
New England’s third-ranked offence matches up against the Chargers’ No. 5 defence as the high-scoring Pats, which have played to the over in each of their past five games, seek to overwhelm the comparatively methodical Los Angeles attack — which has played to the under in four of its last five contests.
Patriots second-year QB Drake Maye has emerged as a superstar and one of the league’s MVP favourites. He completed an NFL-best 72 per cent of his passes for 4,374 yards while guiding the AFC’s highest scoring offence.
His backfield mates, Rhamondre Stevenson and dynamic rookie TreVeyon Henderson, have picked up the pace in the second half of the season, reflected in their player prop odds for anytime touchdowns and rushing yards.
The Chargers’ focus on a more efficient offensive attack is reflected in Herbert’s odds on total passing attempts and completions.
Best Chargers vs. Patriots player prop bet: Rhamondre Stevenson 75+ rushing and receiving yards (+195)
Yes, the Patriots played a very weak schedule, but ignore their offensive prowess at your own peril. Stevenson, in particular, got a boost down the stretch, no doubt motivated by getting pushed aside by fan-favourite Henderson while he missed a few games in the middle of the season.
Stevenson averaged 98 scrimmage yards per outing in the final five games of the season. He is the more reliable option out of the backfield, so he consistently gets more catches than Henderson.
That will be vital against a Chargers’ defence that finished 10th with 45 sacks. Maye was sacked 47 times, fourth-most in the league. Stevenson, along with tight end Hunter Henry, will be his safety valve Sunday night.
Look for Pats’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to scheme with Stevenson to reduce the impact of Chargers linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu, who leads the team with 13 sacks.
Chargers vs. Patriots player prop pick: Justin Herbert under 31.5 passing attempts (-105)
It’s going to be relatively tame weather in Foxborough; cold and maybe rainy, but nothing too crazy. However, although Herbert is talking like he’s back to normal, Harbaugh is not going to risk exposing him too often.
The Patriots’ pass rush is not dominant in the least, but this unit does have Milton Williams back, and that could be a problem for Los Angeles’ makeshift offensive line — which has been without multiple starters throughout the year.
Herbert threw more than 31.5 passes just once in his last six games. He averaged 25.7 attempts per game over that stretch, and that is a likely sweet spot against New England.
Chargers vs. Patriots player prop prediction: TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown scorer (+120)
It took a while for Henderson to break into the running back rotation, but he was a problem for opposing defences in the final 10 games.
He averaged 75.8 yards on just 13.7 carries as New England went 9-1 down the stretch. He scored eight touchdowns during that period as well. That includes six scores in the Patriots’ last four games at home.
The Pats need their fans to bring it in the dreary weather. Henderson is the most likely prospect to bring them to their feet.
