Chargers vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Wildcard Odds, Prediction
The Sunday night game on the NFL’s Wild-Card Weekend is from the AFC as the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers visit the AFC East champion and No. 2 New England Patriots, who are -3.5 with a total of 46.5 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The NFL reseeds its playoffs after rounds; because the Chargers are the No. 7 seed in the AFC, we know they would visit the top-seeded Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round with an upset here. As the No. 2 seed, the New England Patriots would face the second-worst seed after this round with a win.
These clubs didn’t play this season but did last, and the Chargers rolled 40-7 in Foxborough behind three touchdown passes from Justin Herbert – two of those TDs to Ladd McConkey. Drake Maye was fairly quiet for the Pats with 117 yards and a touchdown.
But he and that entire team are miles better this year with Maye as a +135 second-favourite for NFL MVP behind Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (-165). New England won four games in 2024 and 14 this season, tying the NFL’s largest year-over-year win improvement. First-year coach and former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel is the heavy favourite for NFL Coach of the Year at -370, and he deserves to win.
That said, New England didn’t just have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season but easiest by any team since the 1999 Rams. That club became the only team to win a Super Bowl the season after four or fewer wins.
It’s the fifth playoff meeting between these clubs with New England taking the past three for a 3-1 lead.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers really had nothing to play for in Week 18, so they rested QB Justin Herbert and others and lost 19-3 in Denver. Herbert is a terrific QB whose 24,820 career passing yards are second-most in NFL history in a player’s first six seasons. But he’s 0-2 in his playoff career and looked awful in last season’s blowout Wild-Card loss in Houston with a career-high four interceptions.
And Herbert could be under siege Sunday as the Chargers have allowed a franchise-worst 60 sacks, fifth-most by a playoff team ever. Their offensive line has been truly shredded by major injuries this season. The Bolts have used 29 different offensive line combinations, the third most in the league. No team has allowed at least 60 sacks and reached a conference title game. Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its past seven away.
New England Patriots
At 23, Drake Maye became the youngest QB to lead the league in completion percentage (72.0) and is the first QB to lead the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (113.5) since Tony Romo in 2014 with Dallas. The Patriots are 23-5 all-time at home in the playoffs, with that winning percentage of .821 as the NFL’s best mark ever among teams with at least 15 games played. Most of those wins were from Tom Brady, and in 2001 he was the last QB to win a Super Bowl in the season of his first playoff start as Maye is now attempting.
If there is one glaring concern for the Patriots, it is run defence. That unit led the NFL through Week 9, giving up 75.7 yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry (second in the NFL). But from Week 10 on, opponents averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 131.35 rushing yards per game. New England is 4-1 ATS in its past five.
LAC
NE