The Chargers are tantalizingly close to earning a spot in the playoffs, but the job is far from over. At 9-6, they still need to fend off the likes of the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, and Miami Dolphins. Speaking of Denver, that’s who they triumphed over last Thursday at home, 34-27. The New England Patriots are just trying to end the 2024 season with some positives. It almost happened last week as they lost narrowly to the Buffalo Bills, 24-21.

Our NFL odds favour the visiting Chargers but without a ton of chalk. L.A. is currently perched at -4.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Flashback to a year ago when the Chargers and Patriots played a snooze fest in Foxborough in Dec. 2023, won by Los Angeles 6-0. Incidentally, that victory halted a seven-game winning streak for the Patriots over their Californian rivals. Before anybody argues that that was thanks to Tom Brady, two wins – 2020 and 2021 – were after he left the Patriots!

The Chargers look like a decent team and can punch their ticket to the playoffs by winning out. The truth is the franchise only has one playoff appearance in the last 4 seasons since QB Justin Herbert arrived on the scene. This year may be different with Jim Harbaugh marching on the sideline. The “bend but don’t break” defence certainly helps. They only give up 18.3 points per game (first in the NFL) despite being 15^th in total yards conceded (337.9 per match). Against the spread, the team is quite good at 10-5.

Saying that the Pats aren’t that bad ATS with a 6-8-1 record sounds like a dubious proposition. Then again, it looks better than the 3-12-0 straight-up tally! New England has also lost five games in a row, although two of those defeats didn’t prevent them from covering the spread. That includes last week when they were significant underdogs in Buffalo. This might be important on Saturday: the Patriots are 12^th against the pass this season. That, genuinely, isn’t too bad.

Los Angeles Chargers

Talk about snagging victory from the jaws of defeat and, potentially, saving their season in the process.

With about six minutes left before halftime in Week 16, the Chargers were facing a 21-10 deficit against one of the better defences in the Broncos. Then Harbaugh dug deep into the NFL rulebook and got his special teams to successfully attempt a “fair catch kick.”

Those three points made it 21-13 and the Chargers never looked back. They romped their way to a 21-6 advantage in the second half and a 34-27 win. Herbert slung it for 284 yards and connected with Hassan Haskins and Derius Davis for TDs, and RB Gus Edwards barrelled into the end zone twice. L.A. simply dominated once the teams returned from the halftime break.

It remains to be seen just how important this win was, but the Chargers answered the bell in their most dire hour.

New England Patriots

On the flip side, the Patriots let victory slip through their fingers in northern New York when they lost 24-21 to the Bills last week.

For about one and a half quarters, New England legitimately outplayed Buffalo, leading 14-0 and stifling the mighty Josh Allen. So the Bills decided to run the ball, and James Cooks’ 46-yard score turned the tide.

All the Patriots accomplished from that point onwards was an extremely late TD drive by Drake Maye that ended with a 9-yard connection with Hunter Henry. More frustrating is that the score that sealed the deal in hindsight was a sloppy lateral pass by Maye at his own 3-yard line which resulted in a fumble recovery and touchdown for the Bills in the fourth quarter.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson had a healthy five-yard average per touch, even though he only got the ball 12 times.

Who Will Win Chargers vs. Patriots?