Chargers vs. Packers Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
Two teams looking to get back in the win column clash in Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon as the Green Bay Packers play host to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11 NFL action. The Packers dropped a 23-19 decision in Pittsburgh last week, while the Chargers lost in a 41-38 home shootout against Detroit.
L.A. opened as a 3-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total sitting at 44.0.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
This is a rare meeting between the teams as they haven’t faced off since Week 9 of the 2019 season. That game ended in a 26-11 home victory for the Chargers, their first win in the head-to-head series since 1984. Both starting quarterbacks from the game have moved on, with Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets this year and Philip Rivers retiring after the 2020 season.
L.A. currently sits third in the AFC West division with a record of 4-5 straight up. They’re also 4-5 against the spread for the season, covering in two of four road games. It’s worth noting that this could be a low scoring tilt, as the total has gone Under in six of the Chargers’ last seven games.
Green Bay also sits third in their division, the NFC North, at 3-6 SU. They’re 4-5 ATS overall, including 2-2 ATS at home. The total has gone Under in four of the Packers’ last five games.
Los Angeles Chargers
L.A. lost a wild one last week, falling victim to a successful Detroit field goal with two seconds left on the clock. Justin Herbert continued to sling the ball, throwing for 323 yards, four TDs and an interception. Austin Ekeler rushed for 67 yards and a touchdown, while Keenan Allen hauled in 11 catches for 175 yards and two TDs. Allen has been one of the most productive receivers in the league this season, leading the NFL in receptions (73) while ranking fourth in receiving yards (895) and fifth in receiving TDs (six).
Struggles on the defensive side of the ball has been a major issue for L.A. this season. Last week they became just the second team since 1991 to lose despite the offence scoring touchdowns on their final five drives of the game. The defence didn’t force a three-and-out, they recorded no sacks and they allowed a 300-yard passer (Jared Goff), a 100-yard rusher (David Montgomery) and a 100-yard receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown). Head coach Brandon Staley, who was the defensive coordinator for the 2020 Super Bowl winning Rams, is taking a lot of the blame for the poor defensive effort. In the last 2.5 seasons under Staley, the Chargers have a 2-6 record when the game has been decided on the final play.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers out-gained Pittsburgh by 75 yards last week, but it wasn’t enough to avoid suffering their fifth loss in their last six games. Jordan Love was hit-or-miss all day, completing 21 of 40 pass attempts for 289 yards, two TDs and two interceptions. It was the third time this season that Love has thrown for multiple picks in a game. His 10 interceptions this season is second-most in the NFL behind Josh Allen at 11. Aaron Jones managed just 35 yards on 13 rushes, while AJ Dillon had a team-high 70 yards on nine carries. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs each hauled in a touchdown catch.
A major issue hurting Green Bay through the first 10 weeks is Love’s inability to build chemistry with his pass-catchers, particularly Christian Watson. Love targeted Watson a team-high seven times last week, but only connected twice for 23 yards. Watson has caught just 42 per cent of his passes this season, the lowest catch rate among 126 players who have at least 30 targets this season. Of Love’s 10 interceptions on the season, five have come when targeting Watson. Six of Love’s interceptions have come in the fourth quarter and five of those picks would have given the Packers the chance to tie the game or take the lead.
LAC
GB