Chargers vs. Jaguars Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
The Week 11 slate in the 2025 NFL season includes an AFC showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams have very real playoff aspirations, but the Jaguars (5-4) are coming off a disastrous collapse against the Houston Texans that has them on the outside of the current postseason picture. The Chargers (7-3) are trying to keep pace with the Denver Broncos in the high-powered AFC West.
Los Angeles leads the head-to-head series 9-5 all-time, including 8-3 since losing two of the first three matchups. They have not faced each other since a famous playoff game at the end of the 2022 season, when Jacksonville prevailed 31-30 at home after coming back from 27-0 down.
The NFL odds board has the Chargers set as 3-point favourites for this one.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Chargers are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven overall and 0-3 ATS in their last three road games. The Jaguars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four outings and 2-8 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. As for the over/under, the over is 4-1 in L.A.’s last four games, 4-2 in Jacksonville’s last six and 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head.
In addition to the more traditional lines, the first-quarter spread is -0.5 in the Chargers’ favour and the first-half spread is -1.5. The first-quarter over/under is 7.5; the first-half over/under is 22.5.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers suffered some defensive lapses in October against the Washington Commanders, Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts, but that side of the ball is now performing like everyone expected coming into the season. Los Angeles has given up just 10, 20 and 10 points in its last three outings. It ranks fourth in total defence, eighth in scoring defence, fifth against the pass and fifth in interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles is down to its third running back with Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris on injured reserve. But RB3 has stepped up in a big way. Kimani Vidal has rushed for at least 95 yards in two of the last three games and has scored two touchdowns during this stretch.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville scored a respectable 29 points against Houston this past weekend, but it was no thanks to quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The former No. 1 overall pick completed just 13 of 23 passes for 158 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Thus continued a thoroughly unspectacular 2025 campaign for Lawrence, who has thrown only three more TD passes than INTs (10 to seven) and is completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes.
The former Clemson standout is not getting as much help as expected, either. Rookie wide receiver Travis Hunter missed the last two games with a knee injury and is now out for the year after undergoing surgery on Tuesday. Fellow WR Brian Thomas Jr. is questionable for Sunday along with tight end Hunter Long and guard Ezra Cleveland.
Who Will Win Chargers vs. Jaguars?
The Chargers placed offensive tackle Joe Alt on injured reserve last week; he will miss the remainder of 2025 due to an ankle injury. That’s part of the reason why L.A. will probably have to continue getting the job done with defense. Given that they are playing great on that side of the ball and facing a banged-up Jacksonville offence, the visitors should be able to do just that. Let’s go with the Chargers to win this one 24-17.
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