Buccaneers vs. Saints Point Spread: NFL Week 6 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput | Updated Oct 09, 2024

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

A pair of squads coming off deflating losses will collide this Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit NFC South rivals the New Orleans Saints.

Tampa Bay
4-5
AT
October 13, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread -3.5 -105
Moneyline -175
Over / Under o +42.5
Pointspread +3.5 -115
Moneyline +145
Over / Under u +42.5

Week 5 was one to forget for both Tampa Bay and New Orleans. The Bucs were in Atlanta last Thursday night, bungled a late lead and lost 36-30 in extra time. The Saints paid a rare visit to the Chiefs on Monday night and were thoroughly outclassed 26-13.

Our NFL odds believe the visiting Buccaneers will make the Saints walk the plank. They’re pegged as -3.5 favourites.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s one thing to consider that the Saints have a 7-3 edge over the Bucs during the last 10 games. It’s another to consider how things have changed during the past 5 seasons (two meetings per season, hence 10 matches). Drew Brees earned a few of those New Orleans wins. Tom Brady earned some of those Bucs victories. Neither has been around for a while. Most interesting is last season’s split when Baker Mayfield joined Tampa Bay and Derek Carr arrived in Louisiana.

The story of Tampa Bay and the spreads in 2024 has been straightforward thus far. When they win outright, they cover. When they lose the game, they don’t cover, resulting in identical 3-2 tallies. Mayfield is giving a jolt to this team’s offence. It scores 25.4 points per game, good for ninth in the NFL.

As for New Orleans, they’re 3-2 ATS despite being 2-3 straight up. The saving grace was a two-point defeat in Atlanta in Week 4 when they were a 2.5 underdog. Saints fans might be worried. Their side began 2023 in much the same fashion (2-0) before the rails came off.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers know very well they should be 4-1 right now. That they aren’t is a cause for frustration but also an opportunity to learn lessons.

Last week, when Tampa Bay picked off the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins late in the fourth quarter and up 30-27, the game should have been over. But a wasted possession that would have killed the clock resulted in the Falcons getting the ball back, tying the score 30-30 in the dying seconds via field goal, then winning courtesy of a thrilling catch and run play in overtime. It didn’t help that the Bucs’ secondary was blasted for 477 yards.

WR Chris Godwin is having a great year with 386 yards thus far (tied for seventh) and a trio of TDs. His teammate Mike Evans is tied for the NFL lead with five touchdowns.

The truth is Tampa Bay has been up and down through five games. When it looks as if they have wind in their sails, they’ve dropped the ball a couple of times.

New Orleans Saints

Speaking of teams that aren’t keeping momentum, there is the New Orleans Saints. The team that stormed to a 2-0 record by bulldozing their first two opponents has hit a brick wall since.

As of Wednesday, QB Derek Carr is listed as questionable. He took a hit late on Monday night in Kansas City, a game that was slowly escaping the Saints anyway. After netting 47 and 44 points, the club has scored 12, 24, and 13, each time in defeat. Now, the stats are skewed. Do the Saints really have the fifth-best attack at 28.0 points per game? No.

As per Pro Football Focus, the Saints’ offensive line is 21st in the league, so that’s not helping either. Then again, Tampa Bay’s is 20th. Perhaps the Bucs’ relative weakness can be DT Bryan Bresee’s reward, as he has 4.0 sacks to his name thus far.

Should Carr be unavailable, this would be a great time for RB Alvin Kamara to break out against a very average Bucs run defence.

Who Will Win Buccaneers vs. Saints?

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