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Edgar Chaput
Buccaneers vs. 49ers Point Spread: NFL Week 14 Odds, Prediction
This makes for a fascinating matchup. One team, the Bucs, is very talented but has underperformed. The other, the Niners, leads its division but suddenly finds itself severely handicapped.
Highlighting the close nature of this tilt is San Francisco’s status as -3.5 favourites on the NFL odds. The O/U is 37.0.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Comparing these two teams over the past five meetings, which span from 2011 to 2019, feels misleading. The California-based franchise has been a model of consistency (two Super Bowl appearances). In contrast, Tampa Bay only became a force after the living legend that is Tom Brady arrived in town in 2020. For what it’s worth, the Niners hold a slight 3-2 edge.
Brady grew up cheering for the red and gold and is 2-1 against his boyhood team.
If Todd Bowles’ crew has underperformed at 6-6 as far as wins and losses go, imagine what betters are feeling when they see 3-8-1 against the spread. Two of the three covers came in Weeks 1 and 2. They’re 1-8-1 ATS since then. Fun fact: the lone cover during that span came outside the United States when the team defeated the Seahawks in Munich.
Mike Shanahan’s ensemble is 7-5 ATS on the season. Some interesting nuggets for stats nerds. They’ve been favoured by eight points or more four times this year and are 3-1 in those games. They’re 1-2 in games where the spread is less than a field goal. They’ve also covered four of the past five spreads.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday night’s 17-16 conquest against the visiting Saints was a case of stealing victory from the jaws of defeat.
Trailing 16-3 with only a few minutes left, Brady orchestrated what at the time looked like a consolation touchdown drive to make the final score respectable. After all, New Orleans’ defence had eaten his offence for dinner all night. But then, as has often been the case throughout his career, suddenly the whole team came alive. After closing the gap to 16-10, the defence made a key third down stop (on a play inches away from icing the contest). Tampa got the ball back and proceeded to kill the Saints with a thousand cuts. Short passes to Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Cade Otton, and Rachaad White eventually led to the winning score with only three seconds left on the clock.
The offence hasn’t hummed much this year (28th in points per game) but when the defence plays as well as it has (fifth in points against), there’s always a chance with Brady under centre.
San Francisco 49ers
Just when it seemed that it might be smooth sailing for San Fran, the injury bug bites them again. Already missing running back Elijah Mitchell (IR, again), quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t make it out of the first quarter against the Dolphins last week. A broken foot means his 2022 campaign comes to an abrupt close.
But true to the squad’s blue-collar nature, they pulled through with a magnificent defensive performance against one of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks and played their usual offensive scheme as best they could with “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy under centre. First downs favoured the home side 24-14, as did total yards, 351-308. The 33-17 victory was both worthy of a sigh of relief and renewed confidence in the group’s adaptability.
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