Buccaneers vs. 49ers Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
The 49ers handed the AFC South-leading Jags a decisive 34-3 loss last weekend to maintain a share of the NFC West divisional lead, and have claimed victory by double-digit margins in nine of their past 11 home appearances. The Buccaneers snapped a stretch of hard lucks with their first win in five games last weekend, outpacing the visiting Tennessee titans by a 20-6 margin. While the Bucs have earned the win in just two of seven outings, they have rewarded loyal sports bettors with against the spread wins in three straight outings, and in all four of their road games this season.
The 49ers have emerged as heavy 11.5-point home favourites on the NFL Week 11 odds. The Buccaneers trail as distant +450 underdogs on the NFL moneyline, and the total is listed at 41.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The 49ers’ recent three-game losing streak coincided with a rash of injuries that impacted several key players including quarterback Brock Purdy, receiver Deebo Samuel, and rusher Christian McCaffrey. However, with both Purdy and McCaffrey back at full health, the 49ers returned to form, and have now topped 30 points in each of their six wins to date. The Niners have also been a reliable bet while pegged as double-digit home chalk, winning and covering in four straight while allowing just 12 points per game. However, running up the score could be a challenge against the Bucs, who rank eight in the NFL with just 19.2 points per game allowed this season, and who have seen their two road loses this season come by a combined margin of just eight points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signed as a cheap, short term solution under centre, Baker Mayfield has exceeded expectations while giving the Buccaneers a chance to win almost every week. Mayfield has tossed for two touchdowns in each of his past three outings, and has racked up 14 TD passes against just five picks this season. That includes nine TDs over his four appearances. While the Niners have played stingy defence on home turf this weekend, Mayfield is arguably the most mobile pivot they have faced at home, and is worth backing as a lucrative +145 bet on the NFL player props to toss for multiple TDs again on Sunday. However, Mayfield’s success could hinge on the health of Mike Evans. The Buccaneers’ top receiver was limited in practice this week by a quad injury after piling up 143 receiving yards and his sixth scoring catch of the season in last week’s win.
San Francisco 49ers
Framed as a potential Super Bowl preview, last week’s visit to Jacksonville serves as a wake-up call to the rest of the NFL that the 49ers are back on track after losing three straight. Winners, often in dominant fashion in their previous five outings, the Jags were outclassed by the Niners, who held the vaunted Jacksonville attack to just 221 yards while forcing four turnovers. The 49ers have built their success with fast starts, outscoring opponents by a wide 109-50 margin before halftime in their six victories. Even with his recent injury woes, brock Purdy remains among the league’s leading passers, and is tops in the NFL while averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Purdy’s effort are helped by Deebo Samuel’s recent return. Samuel made four catches for 30 yards and added a scoring run, and is worth backing as a -115 bet to compile OVER 65.5 receiving and rushing yards after topping that number in two of three previous home appearances.
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