Browns vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 12, 2021

baker-mayfield browns

The Browns pulled a shocker on Wild-Card Weekend, but it would be an even bigger upset if they can knock off the top-seeded Chiefs on Sunday.

January 17, 2021, 3:05 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Pointspread +8 -110
Moneyline +325
Over / Under o +56


Betting Action


Pointspread -8 -110
Moneyline -399
Over / Under u +56


Betting Action


K.C. is a double-digit favourite on the NFL odds.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This could be called the Texas Tech Bowl in a way because both starting quarterbacks, Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, went there. Mayfield played in Lubbock as a freshman walk-on in 2013 but then transferred to Oklahoma, where he would eventually win the Heisman Trophy. Mahomes played three seasons for the Red Raiders before declaring after his 2016 junior season for the NFL Draft and being selected No. 10 overall in the 2017 draft by Kansas City.

It’s the first-ever playoff meeting between the Browns and Chiefs. They last played Week 9 of the 2018 regular season in Cleveland with the Chiefs prevailing 37-21 behind 375 yards and three touchdown passes by Mahomes in what was his first year as a starter (he started just one meaningless game his 2017 rookie year). That was Mayfield’s rookie year and he threw for 297 yards, two scores and a pick.

The Browns are 5-2 against the spread in the past seven meetings. Should Cleveland win, it would travel to either Baltimore or Buffalo for the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City would host either the Ravens or Bills with a victory.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns were down a handful of coaches last week due to COVID-19 protocols, including head coach Kevin Stefanski, as well as two excellent players in Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio and cornerback Denzel Ward, and they were able to get in just one full practice but went to annual tormentor Pittsburgh and stunned the Steelers 48-37 on Sunday night for the franchise’s first playoff win since New Year’s Day 1995. The game was pretty much over after the first quarter when Cleveland led 28-0.

The Browns, who had lost 17 straight games in Pittsburgh, scored as many points in the first quarter (28) as they did during the first quarter of their previous 13 games combined in Pittsburgh. Just stunning. Mayfield threw for 263 yards and three scores and Kareem Hunt rushed for two TDs. Stefanski will be back for this game; it remains to be seen on the players, but they are reportedly likely back too. Cleveland is 4-11 ATS in its past 15 road games.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City remains the +200 favourite to repeat as Super Bowl champion and the Chiefs haven’t played a game that mattered since Week 16. They rested starters in Week 17 and then had the bye last week. It’s essentially a foregone conclusion that offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will be hired as a head coach at one of the six teams with an opening perhaps as soon as this week – although of course he will stick with the Chiefs until the season ends.

The key Chiefs injury to watch is to rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He injured his hip and ankle in Week 15. Of course, Cleveland’s Hunt is a former Chiefs running back who won the rushing title with them in 2017 before some off-field issues caused his release. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games as favourites.

NFL Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win Browns vs. Chiefs?