Browns vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: NFL Week 7 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Oct 15, 2018

cleveland browns

The Browns had their worst showing of the season last Sunday but it’s hard to say whether it was a trend or a one-off.

Cleveland
7-8
AT
October 21, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay
5-11
Pointspread +3.5 -110
Moneyline +165
Over / Under o +52.5

48%

Betting Action

52%

Pointspread -3.5 -110
Moneyline -195
Over / Under u +52.5

48%

Betting Action

52%

The Cleveland Browns had a really positive first six weeks to the season but they hit a wall in Week 6. They were blown out at home by the Los Angeles Chargers 38-14. For the first time this season, they weren’t in the game. Is that a sign of things to come or can they rebound against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are in the midst of a three-game losing streak?

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s not often that the Bucs have been favored of late but they do play decently in that role. They are 4-6 ATS and 6-4 SU in their last 10 as a favorite. They are 4-2 SU in their last six as a favorite of three or less.

The Browns are a different team this year but they are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine against the NFC (0-9 SU). They are also 7-19 SU in their last 21 as a road dog of three or less and just 9-14 ATS in those contests.

Cleveland Browns

The Chargers are a good team but it’s likely that injuries took their toll on the Browns. They are extremely thin at wide receiver as Rashard Higgins and Derrick Willies were already out. The team lost Rod Streater too.

The other issue it seems is that the Browns fell behind big in this contest. They want to be a team that runs the ball and plays from ahead as they’ve been close at the half of almost every game. This week, they were trailing 21-6. They still ran for 103 yards on 21 carries but they weren’t able to stick with it.

Lastly, they lost the turnover battle. A team that entered the week +8 in turnover margin lost 2-1 to Los Angeles.

The good news is this week, the Browns face what is arguably the league’s worst pass defence as Tampa Bay allows a league-worst 9.3 yards per attempt and 356 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have a 129.5 quarterback rating against them. They have just nine sacks. That should allow rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield to find more time to work and be effective.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs came out of their bye week with a shoddy performance at Atlanta, leading to their third straight loss. They allowed Matt Ryan to go 31-41 for 354 yards and three touchdowns. The Bucs outgained Atlanta 512-416 but mistakes continued to crush this team. Jameis Winston threw two picks, one of which was on second down on the Falcons seven-yard line. They also missed an extra point and then failed a two-point conversion, which really ended up being the difference in the game.

There’s no question that the Bucs defence is pathetic but can they do enough to get back on track against Cleveland? The Browns passing game is in shambles right now with injuries, so the Bucs might catch a break.

It’s also worth noting that the Bucs have played three road games this season. At home, they beat Philadelphia and nearly beat Pittsburgh, so you have to take their road record into account. Back at home in this spot, look for them to clean up their mistakes and end their three-game losing streak.

Browns vs. Buccaneers Prediction

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