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Jeremy Perry
Broncos vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Predictions, Week 15 Odds
The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs have both played two of their best games of the season over the last couple of weeks. Now both teams head into their Sunday clash with plenty of confidence.
The Broncos have been buoyed by the unexpectedly strong play of rookie quarterback Drew Lock. Meanwhile, the Chiefs turned aside both the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots in back-to-back weeks and appear to be in good form as the playoffs approach. Which side is the best bet in this spot?
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Denver Broncos are just 5-8 on the season but have been a reasonable 8-5 against the spread. Similarly, they are 4-6 straight up as a dog but are a healthy 7-3 ATS in those games. They haven’t fared well in this series of late, though, as the Chiefs have won five straight meetings, covering the spread in four of those games.
The Chiefs tend to thrive in these divisional games as they are 4-0 both SU and ATS versus the AFC West this season. They’re also 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS in those contests over the last three seasons. They’re laying a big number here but it’s worth noting that while they are 16-3 in their last 19 as a favorite of 10 or more, they are 8-11 ATS in those games.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos quarterback search might have finally come to an end as rookie quarterback Drew Lock has been fantastic in his first two starts. Supposedly a guy who wasn’t quite ready to start, Lock has looked quite the part as the Broncos have won back-to-back games while scoring 61 points. Lock is fresh off an impressive outing where he went 22-of-27 for 309 yards, three touchdowns and a pick on the road in Houston. He has a QBR of 80.2 through two games, which is quite impressive.
The Broncos have been close in a lot of games this season but their quarterbacking has been subpar. With Lock performing at this level, the offense – and the team – has been reinvigorated. It’s not just Lock that’s stepped up as fellow rookie Noah Fant leads all first-year tight ends in receiving yards. Running backs Phillip Lindsay and Phillip Lindsay have been effective and wideout Courtland Sutton is emerging as a Pro Bowl-caliber player. There are pieces here and Lock has seemingly been the spark that they’ve been waiting for. If Lock keeps this up, the Broncos will be in this game on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off a pair of huge wins as they first turned away the Oakland Raiders to reiterate their dominance of the AFC West and then they went into New England and pulled out a win over the Patriots. With three games remaining, the Chiefs have a chance to win-out and finish 12-4 as they did a season ago.
Their main concern for this week is the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He injured his throwing hand against the Patriots. He had 226 passing yards in the first half but struggled after the injury. His hand is bruised up and he’ll probably play, but this could have a big impact on the spread.
The Chiefs running game is one of the worst in the NFL as they average just 93.0 rushing yards per game (27th). After a couple of big wins and after clinching the AFC West, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs aren’t able to match their intensity of previous weeks. They’ll probably win but this is a big number for them to cover.
DEN
KC