First place in the AFC West is potentially on the line in the Sunday night game in Week 13 as the Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City is a 10-point favourite to win on the NFL odds with a total of 47.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Not all that long ago, the Chiefs were struggling and sat in last place in the AFC West but now lead the division at 7-4 and are -196 favourites to win it for a sixth straight season. Barring injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, I expect that to happen. Denver, the LA Chargers and Las Vegas are all 6-5; the AFC West is the only division where every team has a winning record. The Broncos are +1000 to win the division.

Kansas City has swept the season series vs. Denver five straight years. The Broncos were competitive at Arrowhead Stadium in 2020, losing 22-16. Harrison Butker had five field goals for KC and Mahomes threw for 318 yards and a touchdown. Drew Lock was the Denver QB and had two touchdown passes but also two picks. Lock shouldn’t see the field Sunday unless Teddy Bridgewater is injured.

These teams play again Week 18 in Denver, which should be rather fun weather-wise. The road team is 6-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings.

Denver Broncos

Every time it appears the Broncos are about to fade into irrelevance this season, they win a game they weren’t supposed to. Denver was a short home underdog Sunday but knocked off the Los Angeles Chargers 28-13 thanks in large part to rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II picking off two Justin Herbert passes and returning one 70 yards for a score. Surtain would probably win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year most seasons, but Dallas linebacker Micah Parsons has been historically good and should win it.

The Broncos rushed for 147 yards and two scores so Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t asked to do much, completing 11 of 18 for 129 yards and a TD. He did leave for a while with a leg injury but it’s not expected to keep him out of this game. Left tackle Calvin Anderson (left knee) and left guard Dalton Risner (back) exited and didn’t return. Anderson was already playing in place of Garett Bolles, who is on the COVID-19 reserve list but has a chance to play this week. Denver is 1-4 ATS in its past five vs. AFC foes.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City comes out of its bye week on a four-game winning streak and still very much in the mix for the AFC’s top seed because every team in the conference has at least four losses other than 8-3 Baltimore. The Chiefs would lose a tiebreaker to the Ravens, Bills and Titans due to head-to-head defeats. Patrick Mahomes is still prone to an interception this season with 11 but has been taking care of the ball better in the winning streak. Teams have been not blitzing the Chiefs to confuse Mahomes (and keep as many guys as possible in coverage) and it has worked. Few coaches can adjust better, though, than Andy Reid and he’s a ridiculous 19-3 in the regular season out of a bye week dating to his Eagles days. Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its past six as a home favourite.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Broncos vs. Chiefs?