Broncos vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction
The Chiefs enter the penultimate week of the season knotted with Buffalo with a 12-3 straight up record, but trail the Bills on tiebreakers in the race for the top of the conference and a bye on Wild Card Weekend. While the Chiefs position themselves for postseason play, the Broncos arrive in Kansas City on the heels of a crushing 51-14 loss to the Los Angeles Rams that marked their 10th defeat in 12 games and resulted in the subsequent firing of rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
The Chiefs have rocketed to 13-point favourites since opening as lofty 10-point chalk, backed by 76% of sports bettors. After briefly fading from its opening position at 44, the total has vaulted to 45, with the OVEDR attracting 53% of the betting action.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Sunday afternoon’s matchup at Arrowhead Stadium marks the second and final regular season meeting between these AFC West rivals. The Chiefs have simply dominated in head-to-head action, winning outright in 14 straight dates with the Broncos, capped by a 34-28 victory in Denver three weeks ago. KC has also regularly outclassed the Broncos on home turf, claiming victory by double-digit margins four times during a 6-0 run, and limiting Denver to just 9.3 points per game over their past three visits.
Accordingly, the Chiefs have regularly paid out at the sportsbook when facing the Broncos going 10-4 against the spread during their current 14-game win streak, but have failed to cover as double-digit chalk in two of their past four dates. While the total has gone OVER in their past two clashes, both in Denver, the UNDER has paid out in each of their past four dates at Arrowhead.
Denver Broncos
Sunday marks Jerry Rosburg’s debut as the Broncos’ interim head coach. A veteran bench boss with over 40 years coaching experience, it is unclear what impact, if any, Rosburg’s promotion will have on this team over the final two weeks of a forgettable campaign. Rosburg’s previous experience has focused largely on special teams and defence, raising questions as to whether he will be able to spark any improvements on an underperforming offence led by the team’s current whipping boy Russell Wilson. Denver’s star quarterback has struggled since his arrival in town due to a myriad of reasons, ranging from questionable play-calling by Hackett to a rash of injuries among the receiving corps that is currently impacting Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Kendall Hinton.
Indeed, Wilson has nowhere to go but up after turning in arguably the worst performance of his NFL career last weekend in LA. The former NFL passing touchdowns leader tossed for 214 yards while completing just 55.6% attempts, connecting for one garbage-time score against three picks. He was also sacked six times for the second time in as many weeks and the third time in six outings.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs provide a dramatic contrast to Denver’s current woes. The team enters the weekend enjoying good health after rolling to a 24-10 victory over Russell Wilson’s former Seattle Seahawks teammates last weekend. In addition to extend the team’s current win streak on home turf to four games, the Chiefs also turned in another defensive gem in their victory over the Dirty Birds. Overall, Kansas City has allowed just 13.5 points per game during their current 4-0 run at home, and has been particularly stingy against the rush, allowing just three total scoring runs through their first seven home dates of the season, and limiting opposing pivots to just 144.8 passing yards per game and just four total scores over their past four home dates. However, this team must avoid looking past the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.
While Patrick Mahomes remained productive last week while tossing for two touchdowns and running for a third, he completed fewer than 60% of pass attempts for the third time in five weeks, fuelling calls for him to keep things simple and resist the urge to make every play highlight reel worthy. That is good advice against Denver’s fifth-ranked pass defence, which has allowed just 14 total scoring passes so far this season.
DEN
KC