The Bills enter the postseason as the No. 2 seed in the AFC after closing out the regular season with a 13-4 record. The Broncos get set to make their first NFL playoff appearance since their victory at Super Bowl 50. The No. 7 seed in the AFC is coming off a lopsided 38-0 win over Kansas City in last weekend’s season finale but have posted just one victory in their past five road contests.

The AFC East champion Bills lead the way as 9-point favourites on the NFL Wild Card Weekend odds. The Broncos trail as +350 underdogs on the NFL moneyline and the total is pegged at 47.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Sunday afternoon’s matchup at Highmark Stadium marks the first meeting between these teams since November 2023 and their first playoff clash since the Bills 10-7 victory over Denver in the 1992 AFC championship game. The Broncos eked out a narrow 24-22 victory as 7.5-point underdogs when they visited Western New York last season, snapping a 1-5 head-to-head run that featured three straight defeats at Highmark. The Broncos lopsided victory over Kansas City in Week 18 snapped a two-game slide in which they surrendered 32 points per game in losses to Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Chargers. However, it is important to note that win came against a Chiefs squad that sat virtually all their starters.

Overall, the Broncos have allowed 30 or more points in three of five outings. That marks significant about-face after the squad gave up just 15 points per game during a 5-3 start to the campaign. The Bills meanwhile have consistently run up the score, scoring at least 40 points in three of five outings and at least 30 points in nine of their past 11 outings. However, Buffalo has covered the spread in just two of their past five and are just 4-7 ATS in their past 11 when favoured by at least a touchdown.

Denver Broncos

In addition to a decade-long absence from the postseason, the Broncos must overcome their recent shaky performance on the road when they hit the turf for Sunday’s clash at Highmark Stadium. The Broncos have surrendered an average of 28 points per game during their 1-4 road slide. The squad has struggled when facing teams that have qualified for this season’s playoffs, going just 1-5 prior to being gifted a win by the Chiefs last weekend. However, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has continued to show steady improvement with each passing game. The 12^th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft connected for a season-high 321 yards and four scoring passes last weekend and has found the end zone 12 times over the past four games while tossing just one pick in the past three weeks. Second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr. has steadily emerged as one of Nix’s favourite targets while cracking 100 yards twice in the past five games and pulling in two scoring catches in each of the past two games.

Buffalo Bills

Already locked in as the second seed, the Bills gave many of their starters the day off in last weekend’s regular season finale against New England while also addressing a rash of minor injuries that had plagued the team in recent weeks. Prior to last week’s meaningless date with the Patriots, the Bills won 10 of 11, scoring 33.4 points per game and claiming five victories by double-digit margins. The Bills are also undefeated in four straight Wild Card contests while scoring 34.3 points per game.

Josh Allen remains the lynchpin of this team’s vaunted attack. Well rested after enjoying a day off last weekend, Allen has tossed for 11 touchdowns and run for eight scores over his past six starts. James Cook has also been a force in the backfield, tallying five scoring runs and one TD catch over the past four games to bring his combined touchdown total to 18.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Broncos vs. Bills?