Bills vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
The Bills continue a three-game road trip in Houston after falling 35-10 in Baltimore last week on Sunday Night Football that marked their first loss of the season and snapped a four-game win streak away from Highmark Stadium. The Texans are coming off a 24-20 victory over the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars to extend their current home win streak to four games but have yet to cover the spread during an otherwise solid 3-1 start.
Last week’s loss to the Ravens have not dampened enthusiasm about the Bills, who arrive in Houston listed as 1-point favourites on the NFL odds. The Texans trail as +100 home underdogs on the NFL moneyline and the total is pegged at 47.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
These teams will face each for the first time since October 21 when action gets underway at NRG Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Bills rolled to a dominating 40-0 home victory in that contest to improve to 2-2 in their past four meetings with the Texans. However, it has been the home team that has earned the win in each of their past six tilts, with the Texans claiming victory four times over that stretch. Except for Buffalo’s crushing rout in 2021, dates between these teams have been hard fought, with the Bills’ three most recent defeats in Houston each coming by a single score. That has fueled a 3-1 against the spread run for the Bills. Matchups featuring these teams have also been relatively low scoring, with the total topping 41 just twice in their past 10 contests.
Buffalo Bills
After rocketing to the top of the NFL standings and joining the favourites on the Super Bowl odds during a dominating 3-0 start in which they averaged 37.3 points per game, the Bills were humbled last week in a lopsided 35-10 loss to the Ravens. The Bills had no answer to a Ravens defence that limited them to 75 total yards in the first half and imposing a 21-3 halftime deficit they could not overcome. The Bills also had their hands full against a dynamic Ravens ground game led by Derrick Henry, who galloped for 199 yards and one score. A slew of injuries on defence didn’t help matters and could emerge as an issue again with defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones, cornerback Taron Johnson, and linebacker Terrel Barnard all finding their way on to the injury report.
Josh Allen is also dealing with a hand injury that is not expected to keep him out on Sunday, but after being seen using a walking boot following Sunday’s game in Baltimore and missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, it is not looking likely that receiver Khalil Shakir will be over an ankle injury by the weekend.
Houston Texans
With the Bills still dealing with injury woes, opportunity knocks for the Texans, but they must still find a way to kick start an offence that was forced to erase three Jacksonville leads before sealing their 24-20 win with a touchdown in the final seconds. CJ Stroud emerged as the hero of that contest, orchestrating a game-winning drive that covered 69 yards in just 2:36. Overall, Stroud has picked up where he left off in his impressive rookie campaign, tossing for multiple scores in each of the Texans wins to date and racking up a season-high 345 passing yards last weekend. But overcoming a deficit against the Bills will not be as easy for Houston offence that managed to penetrate the red zone just twice and turn over the ball five times in a brutal 34-7 loss to the undefeated Vikings two weeks ago.
Indeed, the Texans have enjoyed the benefit of favourable scheduling for much of the past year, with their last regular season win over a team with a winning record coming against Cincinnati in Week 10 of last season. The Texans also face injury concerns of their own, with receiver Tank Dell, rusher Joe Mixon and Dameon Pearce, and veteran tackle Laremy Tunsil either missing or being limited at practice this week.
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