Bills vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Wild-Card Playoff Predictions, Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 30, 2019

JJ Watt, Texans, 2018

The Texans will get a massive boost to the lineup as three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt is expected to start versus the Bills.

Buffalo
10-6
AT
January 04, 2020, 4:35 PM ET
NRG Stadium
Houston
10-6
Pointspread +2.5 -103
Moneyline +113
Over / Under o +43

57%

Betting Action

43%

Pointspread -2.5 -117
Moneyline -136
Over / Under u +43

57%

Betting Action

43%

The first of four Wild-Card Weekend NFL playoff games is from Houston on Saturday afternoon when the AFC fourth-seeded Texans welcome the No. 5 Buffalo Bills. Houston is a short favourite at Sports Interaction.

NFL Wild-Card Playoff Point Spread and Odds

Technically, this is the first-ever playoff meeting between the Bills and Texans, although Buffalo did play the Houston Oilers (now the Tennessee Titans) in a very memorable post-season game on Jan. 3, 1993. The Oilers led in Buffalo 35-3 early in the third quarter, but Bills backup quarterback Frank Reich – currently the coach of the Indianapolis Colts – led the biggest comeback in NFL history as the Bills won 41-38 in overtime.

Neither of these franchises have won a Super Bowl. Buffalo went to four straight in the early 1990s but lost them all. The Bills are +4000 to win it all this time. The Texans (+3300) are one of four active franchises to never play in a Super Bowl, joining Detroit, Cleveland and Jacksonville.

The Texans are 5-4 all-time vs. the Bills. Houston won the most recent meeting 20-13 at home in Week 6 last year. Current Buffalo starting quarterback Josh Allen was knocked out injured in the third quarter and then-backup Nathan Peterman had an interception returned 28 yards by Johnathan Joseph for the game-winning touchdown with just over a minute remaining. Both offences turned it over three times and neither even reached 230 yards.

The favourite is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past five meetings. The under is 4-1 in those five.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 campaign when they lost a Wild-Card round game 10-3 in Jacksonville. Buffalo has dropped its past five playoff games. The Bills, who have the NFL’s No. 2 scoring defence, lost three of their final four games in the regular season, although one can throw out the Week 17 13-6 loss to the Jets because Buffalo rested many starters. Allen was in very, very briefly and backup Matt Barkley was terrible. Allen is probably the second-best running quarterback in the NFL after Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Allen’s 510 rushing yards were third-most among QBs and he added nine rushing scores. The Texans allowed the second-most yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks this season (5.6 ypc). Buffalo is a tremendous 8-1-2 ATS in its past 11 road games.

Houston Texans

Houston was the AFC South champion for the second year in a row and also rested most starters in Week 17, a 35-14 home loss to Tennessee that gave the Titans the final AFC Wild-Card spot. QB Deshaun Watson never took the field for the Texans. Neither did Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

Fellow wideout Will Fuller, one of the fastest players in the league, was legitimately injured and is questionable for this one with a groin problem. Fuller helps stretch the field with his big-play ability. Houston is expecting the return of three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt. He was put on injured reserve following a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27. The Texans could use his pass-rushing ability as they finished with only 31 sacks, tied for sixth-fewest in the NFL. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its past seven as a home favourite.

Who Will Win Bills vs. Texans?

SportsInteraction