Bills vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction
This is a must-win game for Buffalo in Week 16. The Bills trail New England by one game in the AFC East and a Patriots win on Sunday would also give them the tiebreaker. Buffalo comes into this matchup following a 31-14 home win against Carolina last week, while the Pats’ seven-game win streak was snapped in a 27-17 road loss against the Colts.
New England is a slim 2-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total at 43.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Bills were stunned a few weeks ago when New England walked out of Buffalo with a 14-10 win. Hate him, or love him, Bill Belichick dominated the coaching battle against Sean McDermott. Belichick led the Patriots to a crucial divisional road win, despite having quarterback Mac Jones attempt only three passes in the game. That performance hasn’t deterred Sports Interaction bettors, however, as about 70 per cent of action is taking the Bills. A similar split of 70 per cent is favouring the Over.
Thanks to Belichick and Tom Brady, Buffalo has been brutalized in New England for years, losing 17 of their last 20 games at Gillette Stadium. Turning to this season, the Bills are 7-6-1 against the spread overall and 4-3 ATS on the road. The total has gone Over in four of Buffalo’s last six games.
Ironically, the Patriots have been much better on the road this season, where they’re 6-1, than at home, where they’re 3-4. They’re 9-5 ATS overall and have covered in seven of their last eight games. The total has gone Over in four of New England’s last five home games.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s offence has rebounded nicely from their 10-point effort against New England a few weeks ago, scoring 27 and 31 points in the last two games. Quarterback Josh Allen had a solid outing in last week’s win, throwing for 210 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. It was an impressive performance from a QB dealing with a left ankle sprain. Allen threw for a season-low 145 yards against New England last time out, so this is an opportunity for a clutch bounce-back performance. Four different receivers caught at least four passes for 35 yards last week, led by Gabriel Davis’ 85-yard, two-touchdown performance. Running back Devin Singletary rushed for 86 yards and a score on 22 carries. The Bills defence also looked strong last week, picking up four sacks and an interception.
A major storyline around most teams, unfortunately, continues to be COVID. Receiver Cole Beasley will miss Sunday’s game after testing positive for COVID. Because Beasley is unvaccinated, he must sit out at least 10 days. Right guard Joe Feliciano and left tackle Dion Dawkins both missed last week’s games in COVID protocols. Feliciano is eligible to play when he turns in two negative COVID tests because he is vaccinated, although he’s reportedly been dealing with symptoms and likely won’t be cleared this week. There’s been no update on Dawkins.
New England Patriots
It was a tough game on both sides of the ball for the Patriots last week, leading them to trail 20-0 by the end of the third quarter. That broke New England’s NFL record streak of 99 straight games with a first half score. Jones threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two costly interceptions in his first career road loss. Hunter Henry was the most productive receiver, finishing with 77 yards and two touchdowns on six catches. Rahamondre Stevenson rushed the ball 10 times for just 36 yards. Stevenson could see less touches this week, as New England’s leading rusher, Damien Harris, returned to practice Wednesday after missing last week with a hamstring injury.
BUF
NE