Bills vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Predictions, Week 16 Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 16, 2019

Tom Brady, Patriots, 2018

Tom Brady holds a record of 29–3 against the Bills with 68 touchdowns and 21 interceptions and has won more games in New Era Field than any quarterback for Buffalo since 2001.

December 21, 2019, 4:30 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +6.5 -115
Moneyline +220
Over / Under o +39


Betting Action


Pointspread -6.5 -105
Moneyline -265
Over / Under u +39


Betting Action


The New England Patriots have had a hammerlock on the AFC East Division this century and can clinch another title on Saturday in Week 16 – yes, Saturday – with a win over the visiting Buffalo Bills.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Former sixth-round pick Tom Brady replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe very early in the 2001 season and obviously the New England Patriots’ dynasty was born. The Pats have utterly dominated the AFC East ever since because they have had Brady under centre all those years while the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets have cycled through quarterback after quarterback – and head coach after head coach.

The only times the Patriots haven’t won the division since 2001 were in 2002, when they lost a tiebreaker to the Jets, and in 2008 when Brady suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. Miami took the division that year. With a win Saturday over the second-place Buffalo Bills, the Patriots will claim the East for an 11th year in a row and take one more step toward a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.

Brady is an obscene 31-3 as a starting QB in his career against the Bills. In Week 4 in Buffalo, the Patriots were 16-10 winners – that was their only single-digit win in starting 8-0. Buffalo has a stellar pass defence and held Brady to just 18-for-39 passing for 150 yards with an interception. New England’s two TDs came in the first quarter via a short run from Brandon Bolden and an 11-yard blocked punt return. The Bills were statistically better in many regards but turned it over four times.  Josh Allen threw for just 153 yards and three picks before being knocked out injured on what should have been a penalty on Patriots defender Jonathan Jones.

The Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread in their past five at the Patriots. The under is 4-1 in the previous five at New England.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo has clinched at least a Wild-Card spot in the AFC and has reached double-digit victories for the first time since 1999. The Bills were upset winners in Pittsburgh this past Sunday. Allen hit tight end Tyler Kroft on the go-ahead touchdown from 14 yards out with 7:55 to play. Allen also rushed for a score. It was the fifth time this season the Bills rallied for a win. Buffalo’s defence held the Steelers to 229 total yards and just 50 on the ground. Tre’Davious White had two interceptions and is tied for the league lead with six. New England’s Stephon Gilmore also has six. It was only Buffalo’s second all-time win in Pittsburgh and first since the 1993 AFC Divisional playoff round. The Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight on the road.

New England Patriots

New England hasn’t lost three games in a row since 2002 and avoided that fate Sunday with a 34-13 victory at one-win Cincinnati to clinch a playoff spot. Brady threw two touchdown passes. That’s now 17 career seasons with at least 20 touchdown passes for Brady, breaking a tie for most with Peyton Manning (16). Gilmore had one of four Patriots interceptions, returning it 64 yards for a score. He’s in the running for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. It was the fourth time this season that the Patriots picked off four passes in a game. New England is 2-5 ATS in its past seven December games.

Who Will Win Bills vs. Patriots?