The Chiefs are -1.5 on the NFL odds with a total of 47.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The NFC Championship Game between the Commanders and Eagles from Philadelphia on Sunday will be completed by the time the AFC title game kicks off between the Bills and Chiefs from Kansas City. On the Super Bowl lookahead lines, Kansas City is -1.5 vs. Philadelphia and -5.5 vs. Washington. Buffalo is also -1.5 vs. the Eagles and -4.5 against the Commanders. Yet despite that, the Eagles are +180 SB favourites only as they have an easier conference title game matchup. 

Kansas City is +240 to become the first team to ever win three straight Super Bowls and just the fourth franchise to reach a third in a row after Miami (1971-73), Buffalo (1990-93) and New England (2016-18). The Chiefs also can become the first team in history to reach five Super Bowls in a six-season span. The Bills are +260 to win their first title and haven’t been back to the big game since those four straight losses in the early 1990s.

Including playoffs, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 21-1 in its past 22 starts (didn’t play in a meaningless Week 18 loss his season). His only defeat came in Week 11 this season, 30-21 in Buffalo in a terrific back-and-forth game. Bills QB Josh Allen might have won his first regular-season MVP Award with an epic 26-yard TD run with 2:17 left on fourth down to clinch the victory.

This will be the fourth playoff meeting between the franchises this decade. Kansas City won the previous three, all close. 

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo reached its seventh AFC Championship Game in franchise history and first since after the 2020 season with a 27-25 home win last Sunday over a Baltimore team that might have had the best overall roster in the postseason. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews dropped the potential tying 2-point try with 1:33 left. Off an historic regular season, QB Josh Allen was held to only 127 yards passing, but he rushed for two scores. The Ravens largely dominated statistically, becoming the fifth team in NFL history to lose playoff game with zero punts, but had three turnovers to zero for Buffalo.

The Bills had just eight turnovers during the regular season and are the only team since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970 to go the first 19 games of a season without losing the turnover battle (including playoffs). It was Allen’s seventh career playoff win, most of any QB all-time without a Super Bowl start. Buffalo looks to become only the third team to beat Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes twice in a season along with the 2018 Patriots and 2021 Bengals. Buffalo is 10-4 ATS in its past 14 games. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City had a much easier opponent last weekend in the Divisional Round in Houston, and while the Chiefs didn’t play all that well and were gifted a couple of questionable calls by the referees, they won fairly easily 23-14 to stay unbeaten at home this season. The Chiefs had only 212 total yards of offence – Houston dominated statistically — and that unit has struggled at times this season.  Patrick Mahomes threw for 177 yards and a score and tied Joe Montana for the second-most playoff wins by a QB all-time with 16. Mahomes has never lost in the Divisional Round.

With girlfriend Taylor Swift in attendance, and she likely will be Sunday, tight end Travis Kelce had a big game with seven catches for 117 yards and a TD. It was the future Hall of Famer’s ninth career 100-yard game in the playoffs, breaking a tie with Jerry Rice for the most in league history. Kansas City has won eight straight playoff games, only the third franchise ever to win at least that many in a row. It is the fourth team ever to make a conference title game seeking a Super Bowl threepeat and the previous three all lost in this round. I say that trend continues. The Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their past 12. 

AFC Championship Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Chiefs?