Bengals vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction
A pair of turnovers that were run back for touchdowns cost Kansas City the game in last week’s 20-14 loss against the Las Vegas Raiders, although the 9-6 Chiefs can still clinch the AFC West with a win this week against Cincinnati. The 8-7 Bengals’ slim playoff hopes took another major hit in a 34-11 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Cincinnati is dead last in the AFC North and a loss in Week 17 likely ends their playoff chances.
Kansas City is a solid 7.0-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 44.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
There’s some serious playoff history between these teams as they’ve met in the last two AFC Championship games. The Bengals won the AFC title 27-24 in overtime two years ago, but eventually lost to the L.A. Rams in the Super Bowl. Kansas City won 23-20 in last year’s AFC Championship game and went on to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles for their second Super Bowl win in the Patrick Mahomes era. Of course, the big difference in this matchup will be the absence of Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11.
Cincinnati has been far from a reliable cover option this season, going 6-7-2 against the spread overall, including 3-4 ATS on the road. They’ve also failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games against AFC opponents. The Bengals have trended toward higher scoring games, with the Over hitting in their last five road games.
Kansas City is an even 7-7-1 ATS in 2023, but they’ve only covered once in their last six games. They’re just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight December games and they’ve failed to cover in six of their last seven games when laying points as the favourite. The Chiefs have consistently finished below the number this season, with the total going Under in 10 of 15 games overall, including seven of eight home dates.
Cincinnati Bengals
This is essentially a do-or-die game for the Bengals as a loss could officially eliminate them from playoff contention. It’s even more concerning when you look at quarterback Jake Browning’s performance in last week’s divisional loss against Pittsburgh. Browning threw for 355 yards and a touchdown, but he was also picked off three times and sacked three times. It ended a three-game win streak for Cincinnati and it also gave Pittsburgh the tie-breaker over the Bengals if it comes down to it.
Tee Higgins was the Bengals’ most productive receiver last week, finishing with 140 yards and a touchdown on five receptions. Higgins’ was Browning’s main target because Ja’Marr Chase missed the game after suffering a separated shoulder in Cincinnati’s Week 15 win over Minnesota. The Bengals have been very quiet about Chase’s Week 17 status, but it sounds like there’s a chance he could play.
Kansas City Chiefs
A lack of offensive help for Mahomes is becoming a serious issue in Kansas City. Last week, no receiver finished with more than 57 yards, despite four players hauling in four or more receptions, and Mahomes led the team in rushing with 53 yards. Mahomes finished the day with 235 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Chiefs have now scored 21 points or fewer in six of their last eight games.
Kansas City’s run game will be key to taking some of the load off Mahomes’ shoulders, but it’s still unclear if No. 1 running back Isiah Pacheco will even play this week. Pacheco, who finished with 26 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries last week, suffered a concussion after missing the previous two games with a shoulder injury. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will need to step up in Pacheco’s place. Edwards-Helaire finished with just six rushing yards on four carries last week and he’s averaging less than 16 rushing yards per game this season.