NFC North rivals square off in this week’s Thursday nighter, with the Green Bay Packers welcoming the Chicago Bears to raucous Lambeau Field. The Packers have been favored in every matchup since December 2008 – and their first meeting of the season is no exception, with Green Bay giving away a touchdown in this one. Both teams are coming off victories, with the Packers subduing Cincinnati 27-24 and the Bears shocking Pittsburgh 23-17 in overtime.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Point spread: Packers -7
Date: Thursday, September 28, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
Point Spread and Betting Analysis
This marks the 18th consecutive meeting between the NFC North rivals in which Green Bay enters as the favorite – and the Packers have provided great value for bettors over that time, going 12-5 ATS. Chicago has, however, covered in two of the last three encounters, including a 30-27 loss as a 4.5-point underdog in their previous tete-a-tete last Dec. 18. As of Tuesday, Sports Interaction bettors are 88 percent in favor of Green Bay minus a touchdown.
In terms of the 45.5-point total, these teams have played some fun back-and-forths in recent years, going over in five of their last seven meetings – and only two of those games were lower than Thursday’s total. That said, the Bears have gone under in each of their first three games this season, with the combination of a Mike Glennon-led offense and a stout defense leading to some low-scoring affairs. Green Bay has played two overs in its first three contests.
Few teams in the league have been as inept in the second half of games as the Bears, who have just 14 points in the third and fourth quarters of their three games this season (though they did hang an extra six on the Steelers in overtime last week.) With Chicago trailing so often in the second half, star running back Jordan Howard has seen just three carries for minus-one yards in the fourth quarters of games in 2017.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are on the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging a healthy 16.7 second-half points per game – the fourth-highest rate in football. If you believe that trend continues Thursday, you should take a shot on any of three first-half/second-half results: Chicago/Green Bay (+360), Draw/Green Bay (+1,200) and Green Bay/Green Bay (+150). You’ll also get -118 on Sports Interaction for Green Bay winning the third quarter, and -122 for the Packers winning the fourth.
Bears vs. Packers prediction
Packers 31, Bears 10