The Lions cruised to a ninth straight victory with last week’s 24-6 win in Indianapolis. At 10-1 on the season, Detroit now sits tied with Kansas City for the best record in the NFL.

The Bears had their chances in Week 12, but ultimately fell 30-27 against Minnesota in overtime. Chicago has lost five straight games and at 4-7 they are last in the NFC North and are likely destined to miss the postseason for a fourth consecutive season.

The Lions opened as a four-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, but the line has shifted significantly. Detroit was favoured by as many as 11.5 points at one time, but they are hovering around 9.5-point favourites as of Wednesday afternoon. The total is listed at 48.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Lions have won three of the last four meetings between these division rivals, with the Over/Under splitting evenly in that time. While this is obviously Chicago rookie Caleb Williams’ first game against Detroit, Lions pivot Jared Goff has a 5-4 career record against the Bears.

Fans and bettors alike are celebrating Detroit this season. Detroit not only has just one straight up loss on their record this season, they’re also 9-2 against the spread. The Bears have been more of a middling cover option at 5-4-2 ATS and they only have one cover in their last five games.

Chicago is still looking for their first road win of the season, which isn’t encouraging when you look at the Lions’ 4-1 home record in 2024. Detroit’s dominance at Ford Field goes back to last season as they are 8-1 in their last nine at home.

If you’re looking for a play on the total, you might want to consider the Under. The Bears have played the Under in seven straight road games and four of the last six games between Chicago and Detroit have finished below the number.

Chicago Bears

Replacing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron with Thomas Brown two weeks ago still hasn’t produced a win for Chicago, but Caleb Williams has shown clear improvement. Williams completed 32 of 47 pass attempts for 340 yards and two TDs last week while avoiding throwing an interception for the fifth straight game. Detroit has an exploitable pass defence that allows an average of 227.2 yards per game in the air (25th), so Williams should continue to cook on Thursday.

It would obviously be a major upset if the Bears beat Detroit, but their defensive unit is good enough to at least help them cover the number as heavy underdogs. Chicago is holding opponents to just 19.7 points per game (eighth) and they have an above average pass defence. The Bears’ below average rushing defence will also catch a break with Lions running back David Montgomery playing through a shoulder injury.

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff didn’t throw for a touchdown last week, but he didn’t need to as Detroit’s rushing attack carried the offensive load. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 90 yards and two TDs, while David Montgomery added 37 rushing yards and a score. Goff finished 26-of-36 for 269 passing yards in only his second game without a TD pass this season.

The big question mark at the moment is Montgomery, who was a limited participant at practice on Tuesday. Keep an eye on Montgomery’s status closer to kickoff. Receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown was also a limited participant after suffering a knee injury last week. Brown is expected to play, but it’s fair to wonder how effective he will be.

Another concern for Detroit is their poor Thanksgiving record. The Lions are a staple of Turkey Day football, but they haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016 and they are just 5-17 since 2000. Dan Campbell is 0-3 on Thanksgiving as Detroit’s head coach and while this year’s squad is clearly a much better team, it’s still something to think about.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bears vs. Lions?