Bears vs. Lions Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
There hasn’t been much to cheer for in Illinois for Bears fans in 2023. It’s another campaign mired in the doldrums, although the club is coming off a 16-13 win against the Carolina Panthers last Thursday. Things could not be better for the Detroit Lions and their supporters. It’s been a remarkably long time since the team has been as good as this. They were last seen in L.A. against the Chargers, pulling off a wild 41-38 win.
The Lions are favoured, as per the NFL odds We leave it up to readers to ascertain whether -9 is too big, too small, or just right.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
A glance at recent head-to-head meetings indicates that the Bears typically get the upper hand on the Lions. That’s certainly what the 7-3 record suggests, but read between the lines and notice that Detroit’s three wins all came in the last three years, including a sweep in 2022. The 31-30 comeback win at Soldier Field last November was one the Lions earned that eventually put them in the playoff conversation. The under has connected three of the last four times.
Things are so dire in Chicago that even when the team wins, such as in Week 10 versus Carolina, it’s not good enough to handle the spread. The Bears are 3-5-2 in that regard and are one of few clubs to be double-digit underdogs at least three times already. They still lost two of those! The over was on a good run for a while, but it’s been derailed by the under, which has gone 4-1 in the last five games.
Not only are the Lions a good bet on the moneyline, but they’re also 7-2 ATS. One of their two failures this season was the demolition derby in Baltimore a few weeks ago but that’s looking like an outlier. Given that they are minus nine-point favourites for this match, they’ve already covered this season when favoured by seven and 10 points.
Chicago Bears
One supposes that Bears fans took the 16-13 win over the Carolina Panthers last week. Even so, not all wins are created equal and this one was a slugfest. Incidentally, it was their second Thursday night victory this season.
If anything, Chicago’s defence can claim that it too made the number one overall draft pick Bryce Young look pedestrian under centre. He only threw for 185 yards and the Panthers as a team were 3-for-15 on third down. The only real blemish, notwithstanding the offence, was a punt return the Bears conceded in the first quarter that got Solider Field worried. But Chicago’s defensive pressure took care of business, earning nine QB hits (Justin Jones had three) and a trio of sacks, including Yannick Ngakoue’s third of the year. Whether QB Tyson Bagent is the answer at QB is too early to say, but for now he looks very raw.
Justin Fields has been upgraded to questionable. ESPN even says he’ll probably play.
Detroit Lions
On the complete opposite end of the NFL spectrum was a breathtaking, back-and-forth shootout between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers. It was a bananas game that eventually went Detroit’s way, 41-38.
The defence was clearly optional. Detroit racked up 533 total yards and L.A. 421. However well Justin Herbert performs (27-for-40, 323 yards, four TDs, one INT) there are always problems with the Chargers. In this case, it was their defence and the Lions made them pay big time. David Montgomery scored one of the rushing touchdowns of the season in the second quarter (he finished with 112 yards) and Jahmyr Gibbs added 77 yards of his own, but it was the Jared Goff-to-Amon-Ra St. Brown connection that ruled the day with eight connections, 156 yards and a score. Just when the game couldn’t get any more exciting, the Lions engineered a late fourth-quarter drive that concluded with a 41-yard field goal from Riley Patterson to win the game.
CHI
DET