Bears vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Aug 05, 2024

We may get a first look at Bears rookie quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams on Saturday when Chicago plays at Buffalo in Week 1 of the preseason.

Chicago
1-0
AT
August 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
New Era Field
Buffalo
1-0
Pointspread +26.5 +500

0%

Betting Action

64%

Pointspread -26.5 -900

0%

Betting Action

64%

The Bears are 3-point favourites on the NFL odds. 

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Bears and Bills franchises have little in common over the past five seasons. Chicago hasn’t finished with a winning record in any of them with one quick playoff berth in 2020. Buffalo has won double-digit games in each of those seasons and reached the playoffs in all but just one AFC title game in that span as the Bills usually run into and lose to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City in the postseason.

Thus the one thing I think the franchises do have in common entering 2024 is that neither head coach will be back in 2025 without some success. For Chicago’s Matt Eberflus, that probably simply means a winning record and wild-card contention. For Buffalo’s Sean McDermott, it likely means at least a trip to the AFC title game, but another playoff loss to the Chiefs might end his tenure regardless.

The last regular season meeting between the teams was Christmas Eve 2022 in Chicago, and the Bills rolled 35-13 as QB Josh Allen threw for two scores and rushed for one. The Bears’ primary QB that game was Justin Fields, but he’s now with Pittsburgh.

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Chicago Bears

Chicago “won” its preseason opener but most sportsbooks voided all bets because the Bears’ 21-17 victory last Thursday in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, was called with 3:31 left in the third quarter due to lightning and heavy rain. Bears third-string quarterback Brett Rypien was excellent in relief of second-stringer and starter Tyson Bagent, going 11-for-15 for 166 yards and three touchdowns.  No Bears starters played in the game, and Coach Matt Eberflus said his decision on whether to start rookie QB Caleb Williams on Saturday will be based on the general health of the team, and in particular the offensive line. Right tackle Darnell Wright, right guard Nate Davis and left guard Teven Jenkins are all dealing with minor injuries.

Eberflus previously had said he wanted Williams to get somewhere between 45-55 preseason snaps and usually starters don’t play in the final exhibition game, so I expect to see Williams here even if only a series or two. Most Bears starters are locked in for the regular season other than at centre between Ryan Bates and Coleman Shelton. There is a battle for the No. 2 running back behind free-agent addition D’Andre Swift between Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert, with Herbert looking much better against the Texans with 35 yards on four carries. Eberflus is 5-2 straight up in the preseason as Chicago’s coach.  

Buffalo Bills

Will we see Buffalo’s starters in their preseason opener? That hasn’t been officially announced yet, but star QB Josh Allen and most starters didn’t play in the opener last year. I tend to doubt Allen plays here, although he does have a fair amount of receivers to get used to after the team traded away Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs to Houston this offseason. We should see rookie second-round receiver Keon Coleman, who could be Diggs’ long-term replacement. It likely will be former Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and third-stringer Shane Buechele taking most of the snaps here.

NFL Preseason Betting Tips

Probably the biggest position battle on the Bills is at safety after the team said goodbye to seven-year starters Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer this offseason. Damar Hamlin, Mike Edwards and rookie Cole Bishop were early contenders, but Edwards and Bishop are both week-to-week with injuries. Sean McDermott is 14-7 in the preseason as Buffalo’s coach.  

NFL Preseason Prediction – Who Will Win Bears vs. Bills?

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