Back to the Futures: How NFL futures odds changed following Week 1
Week 1 of the NFL Season is in the books, and what a week it was. We saw a number of great games, including the Chargers knocking off the Chiefs, the Steelers defeating the Jets via a 60-yard field goal and the 49ers rallying late to defeat the Seahawks. To cap it all off, the Ravens and Bills treated us to an instant classic on Sunday Night Football in what could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game come January.
With Week 1 in the rearview mirror, how did the NFL futures odds change and who is in pole position in the player awards markets? Let’s get into it.
How did the Super Bowl odds change?
- Buffalo Bills (+600)
- Baltimore Ravens (+650)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
- Green Bay Packers (+900)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+1200)
- Detroit Lions (+1700)
- San Francisco 49ers (+1800)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)
- Los Angeles Rams (+2000)
- Washington Commanders (+2000)
- Denver Broncos (+2500)
- Minnesota Vikings (+2500)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3000)
- Houston Texans (+3500)
Given that it’s Week 1, there weren’t that many changes following Sunday and Monday’s results. The Bills now sit atop the Super Bowl odds following their improbable comeback over the Ravens, while the Chiefs’ odds have taken a hit after losing to the Chargers in Brazil. Despite the fact that they were embarrassed in Green Bay on Sunday, the market still isn’t too down on the Lions, with Detroit still holding the sixth-best Super Bowl odds at +1700.
How did the player awards odds change?
The most notable race in the player awards market that was impacted by a Week 1 result was in the MVP market, as Josh Allen has now established himself as the favourite for the award at +310, while Lamar Jackson dropped back a bit to +550 following the loss. Both quarterbacks were outstanding in the game, but given Allen’s schedule and other opportunities to shine against high-level competition (Chiefs, Eagles) at home, it’s understandable that he’s the current favourite.
Elsewhere, Derrick Henry is the new favourite for Offensive Player of the Year, while Micah Parsons is the new Defensive Player of the Year favourite at +550 odds. The new Coach of the Year favourite is Jaguars head coach Liam Coen at +700 odds.
Best NFL futures bet to lock in right now: Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North (-145)
While the Ravens just suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Bills, this is not the time to sell your Baltimore stock. In fact, Lamar Jackson and company clearly looked like the best team in the sport for the majority of that game, which leads me to taking the Ravens to win the AFC North for a third consecutive season, especially now that the price has come down a bit.
From a market perspective, if the Ravens held on and won in Buffalo, this number is probably sitting around -250 (if not higher). Therefore, I see value in the current number, especially since I was not impressed at all by the Cincinnati Bengals in their opener against the lowly Browns.
Despite winning in Week 1, the Steelers are likely headed for another 9-8 season, and Baltimore has a favourable schedule on the horizon. In fact, the Ravens get five of their next six games at home, where they rarely lose these days. It’s entirely possible that John Harbaugh’s team is sitting at 5-2 and leading this division by the end of October.
