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Edgar Chaput
Are the Bills, Packers, and Rams Playoff Teams? NFL Odds Discussion
Every NFL season brings with it twists and turns. Some surprise teams overperform, others underperform, and key players get injured (as of this writing Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence could miss some play time). When the calendar shifts to December, the question on everyone’s lips is about which clubs will earn playoff berths.
With 13 weeks of football in the books and barely a month to go before fans wake up to Wild Card Weekend, we evaluate five teams’ odds of making the postseason. None of them are guaranteed a spot, but each has a chance.
Don’t forget to check out our NFL odds for all your football action.
Underachiever: Buffalo Bills (6-6) Playoffs Odds
There are no two ways about the Buffalo Bills. The club has underperformed. This was yet another campaign when the pre-season pundits trumpeted that the Bills were a Super Bowl favourite, and with reason. However, a diabolical cocktail of terrible injuries on the defensive side and uncharacteristic mistakes have this annual darling at 6-6 and on the outside looking in the playoff picture.
In a twist few saw coming, heading into Week 14, the Bills are priced at -500 to NOT make the postseason, and only +375 to be playing meaningful football by mid-January.
TE Dawson Knox (IR), LB Matt Milano (IR), DT DaQuan Jones (IR), CB Dane Jackson (questionable), the Bills are missing bodies in key positions. When they have the ball good things generally happen. They rack up 383 total yards per game, including 260 through the air from Josh Allen, and score the fifth-most points per game with 27.3. The numbers suggest they’re one of the best teams in the NFL, but keep in mind that they destroyed the Dolphins, Commanders, and Raiders in September and early October, scoring a ton of points and giving up very few.
Currently, they’ve lost four of six, with one of those two wins coming against the lowly Jets.
Buffalo is at the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday – surely fuming after their loss in Green Bay – and hosts the Cowboys in Week 15. As much as this seemed unthinkable a couple of months, it doesn’t look like the Bills are going to make it…
Overachiever: Houston Texans (7-5) Playoffs Odds
On the opposite end of the spectrum, albeit still on the outside looking in, are the Houston Texans. First-year head coach DeMeco Ryans has instilled a new culture in Houston, one that was badly needed after the sour way in which the Deshaun Watson era ended and the moribund few seasons in the interim. Look at them now, priced at -350 to make the playoffs and +275 to miss them.
The name on everybody’s lips these days is QB C.J. Stroud, who is almost a lock for offensive rookie of the year. He leads the NFL in throwing with an incredible 3,540 yards. Yes, a rookie leads all quarterbacks in passing yards through 13 weeks. A fibula injury to WR Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz’ questionable status are causes for concern, but guys like Nico Collins have stepped up.
The Texans are priced at -350 to make the playoffs even though they don’t hold a spot as of this writing. Who can blame the oddsmakers for giving Houston the benefit of the doubt? Consider that the club stated the season 0-2. They’ve gone 7-3 since then with a head coach who had never held that position at the NFL level and a first-year signal caller.
Houston takes the road for a few weeks, which could be a challenge, although their opponents are the Jets and Titans. Both are winnable games.
Question Mark Team: Denver Broncos (6-6) Playoff Odds
There were a lot of questions about the Denver Broncos when the regular season started. The franchise clearly wanted to erase the memories of a terrible 2022. Enter Sean Payton to revive a mediocre team led by QB Russell Wilson, a proven champion.
No one can forget the 70-20 embarrassment suffered at the hands of the Miami Dolphins back in September. Denver also started the season 0-3 and things were looking dire. Since then the club has rattled off six wins in nine contests, with a defence that has played significantly better. In fact, it looks like one of the best units in the NFL these days. Safety Justin Simmons has three interceptions, S Nik Bonitto leads the team in tackles for losses (10) and sacks (seven), and LB Alex Singleton is sixth in the NFL in tackles (122).
Russell Wilson isn’t throwing for nearly as many yards as he used to, but you know what? He’s only been picked off seven times. Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Josh Allen have all been intercepted more often.
The Week 13 defeat to Houston hurt Denver. Not only do they have a worse record than Houston, but the Texans hold the tiebreaker should that be important come Week 18. One reckons that went a long way to pricing them at -450 to miss the postseason and only +350 to get in.
Even so, the rest of their schedule has two games against the Chargers, one versus the Raiders, and another pitting them against the Patriots (there is a Lions game in there, to be clear). All of those are winnable.
Question Mark Team: Los Angeles Rams (6-6) Playoff Odds
A team that looked dead in the water not long ago, the Los Angeles Rams are proving doubters that they have some fight in them. A three-game winning streak has evened their record at 6-6. Furthermore, one of those wins came against NFC West foes the Seahawks, giving the Rams the season sweep, and playoff hopefuls the Cleveland Browns.
This is a difficult team to gauge. After Week 13’s action, the Rams are priced at -200 to make the playoffs and +160 to miss them.
To further emphasize the murkiness, L.A. ranks anywhere from 13th to 16th in total offensive yards per game, passing yards, rushing yards, and points. They’re by no means bad, but nor are they great in those all-important categories. Guess what. Defensively they’re anywhere from 14th to 17th in total yards conceded per game, passing yards, rushing yards, and points.
Both TE Tyler Hibgee (neck stinger) and WR Puka Nacua (ACL) got banged up versus the Browns in Week 13. As of Tuesday, December 5, neither is expected to miss time. Both are incredibly important to Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford’s offence. Consider that Nacua, a rookie, is over 1,000 yards already and averages a healthy 85.8 per game. RB Kyren Williams, when healthy, is a key component for the red zone offence.
The road ahead is far from easy. They visit the Ravens, the 49ers, and host the Saints. Even with Commanders and Giants games in the mix, their outcome seems far from assured.
Overachiever: Green Bay Packers (6-6) Playoff Odds
The Packers are priced at -210 to partake in postseason play and +170 to miss it.
How is it that the Rams at 6-6 are a question mark but the Green Bay Packers are overachieving with an identical record? The plain reason is that uncertainty abounded in September about where the team would go without legend Aaron Rodgers in the mix. Word on the street was that QB Jordan Love looked good, but it wasn’t as though he had shown it much, or at least regularly.
Then, after seven games, the club was 2-5. Done and dusted, right? Wrong. Green Bay has overcome the odds and gone 4-1 since then. What’s more, Jordan Love has looked legitimately good in the process. Let’s call it like it is: he was better than Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night in Week 13. That doesn’t mean he’s the better player, not at this stage anyways, but he still outplayed arguably to best QB of the current generation. Or any generation.
Where once was a club that opponents feared because of its attack, now stands a team that knows how to clamp down on defence. The Packers only give up 20.3 points a match. Other than LB Quay Walker’s team-leading 92 tackles, there aren’t many Green Bay defenders with eye-popping stats. Injuries haven’t helped. CB Jaire Alexander is perpetually banged up, CB Eric Stokes is nursing a hamstring injury, and now Christian Watson is suddenly listed as questionable with a hamstring issue of his own.
The schedule, though, is too good to be true. Green Bay visits the Giants, hosts the Buccaneers, visits the Panthers, then the Vikings, and comes back home to play the Bears. They could seriously be a 10-7 Wild Card team.
