It’s an all NFC West showdown in the NFC championship game as the L.A. Rams prepare to host the San Francisco 49ers.  Both team’s are coming off tight wins settled by last-second field goals in what turned out to be one of the best weekends of playoff football in recent memory.  The Rams knocked off Tom Brady and the Bucs, 30-27, as 2.5 point underdogs, while the 49ers took out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 13-10, as 6-point dogs.

L.A. opened as a 3-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 48.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s been all 49ers in this head-to-head, lately.  San Francisco has won the last six meetings between these teams, including two this season.  The teams actually ended their respective regular season’s against each other, with the 49ers winning 27-24 in overtime at SoFi Stadium.

San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 316 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against L.A. in Week 18.  Brandon Aiyuk picked up a team-high 107 receiving yards, while Elijah Mitchell added 85 rushing yards.  Matthew Stafford finished with 238 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs for the Rams.  Cooper Kupp led all receivers with 118 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The 49ers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road.  Low scoring games have been a trend, with the total going Under in six of San Francisco’s last seven games.

L.A. is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, but they’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against the 49ers.  The total has gone Under in five of L.A.’s last six home games.

The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.

San Francisco 49ers

The low scoring game against Green Bay isn’t shocking given it’s January, so Lambeau Field was cold and covered in snow.  For whatever reason, the 49ers have been Rodgers’ kryptonite as he is now 0-4 in the playoffs in his career against his childhood team.  Garoppolo wasn’t overly effective, completely 11 of 19 pass attempts for 131 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.  The turning point of the game was Jordan Willis‘ blocked punt that led to a touchdown from safety Talanoa Hufanga.

Kicker Robbie Gould also saved the day, nailing two field goals, including the game-winning 45-yard kick.  Gould has now made all 20 of his career playoff field goal attempts.  He owns the NFL record for most field goal attempts without a miss in the postseason and his streak of 20 consecutive postseason field goals is the third longest in NFL history.

The big concern this week is obviously the offence.  Garoppolo has failed to throw a touchdown pass in both of San Francisco’s playoff games.  The 49ers had minus-10 yards on their first four series’ in Green Bay, three of which included third-down sacks.  It was the first time the 49ers opened a game with four straight three-and-outs since September 2009.  There’s serious concern that Garoppolo is feeling the effects of thumb and shoulder injuries, though it would be a complete shock if rookie Trey Lance was thrown into the mix at this point.

Los Angeles Rams

It looked like Brady was going to pull off yet another miracle comeback against the Rams, but L.A. hung on and eked out the win.  The Rams blew a 27-3 halftime lead thanks to four second-half turnovers, three of which led to points for Tamp Bay.  Stafford earned just his second career playoff win, finishing with 366 passing yards and two TDs.  He also added a running score.  Kupp had another monster game.  The regular season receiving leader in touchdowns, yards and receptions, finished with 183 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bucs.  Matt Gay’s 34-yard field goal sealed the win.

Aaron Donald and Von Miller were the biggest defensive factors last week, combining for 14 of L.A.’s 17 pressures on Brady.  The NFL G.O.A.T. had just four completions on 14 attempts and took three sacks on those plays.

The Rams played without left tackle Andrew Whitworth against Tampa.  Whitworth is dealing with a leg injury he suffered in the wild-card round against Arizona and his status is up in the air, so it’s worth monitoring as the week goes on.  If Whitworth can’t go, Joseph Noteboom will fill in at left tackle again.

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