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Jeremy Perry
49ers vs. Rams Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction
Trey Lance was able to lead the San Francisco 49ers to a critical win last week that nearly cemented their spot in the postseason. However, there is still work to do. They’ll need a win over the Los Angeles Rams, who will offer a stiff test. The Rams have won their last five games with their most recent being a come-from-behind triumph over the Baltimore Ravens. Can the 49ers clinch the final playoff spot in the NFC or will the Rams knock them out?
L.A. is a 4.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 44.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The 49ers have historically a lot of success in the month of January, winning their last six games against the spread in the month. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. San Francisco has been the Rams’ kryptonite, winning four of their last five meetings against the spread. The under has cashed out in their past four matchups overall as well.
On the other hand, Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against teams in the NFC West division. They are just 1-4 ATS when going up against teams with a winning record this season though. The Rams have watched the under cash out five out of their past six games when playing at home against a team with a winning road record.
San Francisco 49ers
Lance looked good against the Houston Texans last weekend, when he was able to settle into the flow of the game. He ended the contest with 249 passing yards, two touchdowns and an interception. The 49ers leaned heavily upon their ground game though, something they have done for most of the season. Elijah Mitchell makes them much more balanced as he’s been their most effective runner out of the backfield. He took 21 carries for 119 yards last week and took a lot of pressure off of Lance.
The main challenge here is that the Rams have the sixth-best run defence in the NFL. The 49ers had 156 rushing yards in the first meeting of the teams, which was the key to their 31-10 win. Another strong effort on the ground will likely get them the season sweep.
Los Angeles Rams
It was definitely another ugly game for the Rams last week but they found a way to outlast the Baltimore Ravens. Matthew Stafford had 309 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The picks are starting to add up, as Stafford has five interceptions in the last two games. Cooper Kupp was able to continue forward with his MVP campaign, grabbing only six receptions but totalling 95 yards and a touchdown. The air attack may not keep them ahead forever and at some point this ground game will have to take over and relieve pressure from Stafford.
This is a big measuring stick-type of game for the Rams. They were crushed by the 49ers in the first meeting and will likely face opponents like this in the playoffs – teams who will force them to run. On top of that, the Rams need a win here to maintain the No. 2 seed in the NFC and avoid traveling as much as possible. A loss here would really deflate the momentum they’ve built up during their five-game winning streak.
SF
LAR